Compassionism Framework Simulation v3.5
All five architectures · CCO · PTF · PTH · SZH · CIP · BLEI-calibrated
Loading illustrative reference run…Run Simulation.
CCO: OffPTF: OffPTH: OffSZH: OffCIP: Off
Run configuration
Economic Outcomes
Wealth Poverty Rate
Gini Coefficient
Median Wealth
System Stability
Temporal Stability · BLEI Framework↗ paper
Median BLEI Score
Agents at Top BLEI Tier (730+ days)
Avg Extractive Drain (EDC)
BLEI Poverty (< 30 days)
Economic Trajectory
Poverty rate — scenario vs baseline
Dashed = US welfare baseline trajectory (same years, population-level recessions enabled)
Gini coefficient over time
Wealth distribution — p10 / median / p90
Dashed lines = bottom/top deciles · Filled band = median trajectory · Inequality envelope
BU velocity & conversion activity
BLEI Temporal Stability
Median BLEI score — days of basic living covered
Threshold 30d · Stable 120d · Secure 365d · Flourishing/Comfortable 730d
BLEI tier distribution — final year
Six-tier welfare classification (Johnson & Claude, 2026)

System comparison — final-year results  Baseline/CCO-only top tier = Comfortable; CCO+PTF = Flourishing

Top BLEI tier label: 'Comfortable' for baseline/CCO-only (730+ days aspirational without PTF/PTH cost reduction); 'Flourishing' when CCO+PTF active. Both thresholds = 730 days — label reflects realistic attainability. See BLEI paper for full tier definitions.

ConfigurationPoverty elim.Median wealthGiniMedian BLEIAvg EDCStability
Run the simulation to see results.
📋 Assumptions, ODD Protocol & Known Limitations v3.5 — click to expand 📐 ODD Protocol — Grimm et al. (2010) standard ABM description
Overview: Purpose & Entities

Purpose: Explore Compassionism parameter space; identify conditions under which poverty targets are met; provide comparable scenario analyses for policy discussion. Not a forecasting model. Entities: Households (agents) characterised by economic state. Scales: 100–2000 agents; 5–30 annual time steps. Each agent represents one adult household unit.

Overview: State Variables

Per agent: wealth (USD), wage (SIU), octave (skill tier 0–maxOct), quality (1–9×), automationRisk ∈ [0.2,1.0], inCCO/inPTF/inPTH (participation flags), buBalance, acreEquity. Aggregate observables: poverty rate, Gini, BLEI tier distribution, EDC, stability index.

Design Concepts: Emergence & Adaptation

Emergence: Poverty, inequality, and BLEI tier distributions emerge from agent-level rules — not directly imposed. Adaptation: Octave advancement gated by FBS (Mullainathan & Shafir bandwidth constraint). PTF adoption via economic distress and social diffusion (Bass 1969 model). No explicit utility maximisation — behavioural rules only.

Design Concepts: Interaction & Stochasticity

Interaction: Indirect market-mediated only — no direct agent-to-agent interaction. Cooperative effects via PTF/SZH zone parameters. Stochasticity: Seeded PRNG (mulberry32); wage variance ±10%; recession events 10% annual probability (beta(5,2) severity); BU spend rates 60–90%; octave advancement (FBS-gated probability). Same seed + params → identical run.

Details: Initialization

Agent wealth: lognormal(10.5,1.2) → median ~$36K (Fed SCF 2022). Wage: lognormal(3.5,0.5) → median ~33 SIU. Octave: beta(2,5)×maxOct. Quality: lognormal(log(maxMult×0.5),0.4). automationRisk: uniform[0.2,1.0]. Participation flags assigned at initialization probabilities. Baseline comparison agents: wealth×0.85 — documented design choice representing lower savings absent CCO.

Details: Submodels

Annual update (runYear): wage growth with diminishing returns → living cost subtraction (SIM_COST_SCALE) → CCO conversion income → PTH Acre Equity appreciation → PTF adoption check → wealth floor clamp. BLEI = (liquid + γ·wage + buFood) / dailyCost. Gini: sorted non-negative-clamped wealth. Recession: beta(5,2) incomeMultiplier ∈ [0.70,0.95], NBER-calibrated (nber.org).

🔧 Cumulative Bug Fixes (v3.1 → v3.5)
Version/citation consolidation & DOI (v3.5)

Exported CSV/JSON files previously self-reported "v3.3" in headers, filenames, and metadata while the page displayed v3.4 — a version-string drift bug. Fixed by introducing a single META object as the source of truth for version, DOI, citation, and URL; all exports now read from it. Archival DOI (10.17605/OSF.IO/QWTE2) added to schema.org metadata, footer, References, and both export formats.

Preset internal naming (v3.5)

Internal key PRESETS.optimal renamed to PRESETS.reference throughout (definition, button id, PRESET_IDS, OAT sensitivity mini-runs). UI-facing labels ("Full Integration", "reference run") were already correct; this closes the gap between internal code and displayed terminology.

Effective max quality multiplier indicator (v3.5)

Added a live label under the Quality Multiplier Ceiling slider showing the Phi-adjusted effective maximum (e.g. "Effective max with Phi: 14.58×"), updating on slider drag and Phi toggle. Previously the 1.618× Phi bonus on top of the stated ceiling was undocumented in the UI.

Seed range clamp & EDC documentation (v3.5)

initRNG(): now enforces the same 0–999999 range as the seed input's HTML min/max, not just a NaN check. agentEDC(): added a comment documenting that the 18/1100/820 constants are scenario-calibrated design targets (chosen so EDC lands within CFG.EDC_BASELINE_LO/HI at median wage for each tier), not derived from a closed-form model or external data.

Gini — negative wealth & zero-wealth (v3.2/v3.3)

v3.2: Gini computed on wealth clamped to ≥0 (WEALTH_FLOOR=−$10K broke standard formula). v3.3: totW=0 → Gini=0, not 1. (Old ||1 fallback incorrectly returned 1 for zero-wealth edge case.) Gini measures distribution shape; all agents at zero = perfect equality of deprivation. BLEI poverty (% <30d) captures the poverty level that Gini misses here.

Wage growth diminishing returns (v3.3)

Fix: Stability premium × 1/(1+0.5·max(0, wage/35−1)). Prevents structural compounding at high incomes. BLEI is purely measurement; the premium reflects the underlying stability it measures. Diminishing returns grounded in Mullainathan & Shafir (2013) + Carroll (1997): marginal benefit is largest at low-to-median wages.

Recession severity distribution (v3.3)

Fix: Uniform distribution replaced by beta(5,2) over [0.70,0.95]. Mode ≈ 0.86 (14% income loss) — mild recessions most common. Tail to 0.70 (30% loss, analogous to 2008–09). Calibrated against NBER post-WWII recession data: median US recession ≈ 12% peak income loss. Source: NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.

NaN/Inf guards, percentile interpolation, SIM_COST_SCALE (v3.3)

NaN guards in agentBLEI, agentEDC, runYear, calcMetrics. p10/p90 now use proper linear interpolation (not index rounding). ANNUAL_BASE_COST renamed to SIM_COST_SCALE to avoid apparent contradiction with BASE_DAILY_COST ($68.33/day ≈ $24,941/yr vs 1,500 SIU simulation scale).

agentEDC income proxy & lognormal stability (v3.2)

EDC: Switched from wealth/60 proxy to actual agent wage (consistent with BLEI v3.1 fix). lognormal: Math.max(1e-14,1−RNG()) protects against log(0)=−Infinity on seeds where RNG()=1. gamma(): 5,000 iteration cap prevents potential infinite loop.

Comparison RNG & PRESET crash (v3.2/v3.3)

v3.2: CCO comparison agents use deterministic index-based participation (not RNG()<0.78) — preserves seed reproducibility. v3.3: PRESETS now includes 'hiAI'; applyPreset() guards against undefined preset with console.error; all 5 preset buttons correctly highlighted.

📊 Empirical Calibration & Mechanism Documentation
Daily vs. simulation cost scales

BASE_DAILY_COST ($68.33/day) = real-world BLS CES 2023 used for BLEI calculation. SIM_COST_SCALE ($1,500) = calibrated ABM simulation scale — NOT US CES annual. Operative ratio: wage×12/SIM_COST_SCALE. Worked example: agent earning 35 SIU/month → annual SIU income = 420. Operative ratio = 420/1,500 = 0.28. With CCO+PTF+PTH cost factors (0.80 × 0.88 × 0.65 ≈ 0.457), effective cost = 686 SIU → ratio = 420/686 ≈ 0.61. Standard ABM calibrated-unit convention (Epstein & Axtell, 1996). Base daily cost ($68.33/day) sourced from BLS CES 2023 (bls.gov/cex).

BU wealth creation — counterparty accounting

BU → quality conversion does not create wealth ex nihilo. PTF businesses accept BUs and provide real goods/services (food, utilities) at cooperative prices. Quality multiplier reflects productivity gains distributed to workers via cooperative ownership (Mondragon model, Whyte & Whyte 1991). Conversion economy circulates within the PTF network.

PTH Acre Equity — no double-counting

TWO separate PTH benefits: (1) housing cost reduction (35% of SIM_COST_SCALE) and (2) Acre Equity growth. wealth += appreciation × 0.5 is NOT double-counting — it represents the accessible liquidity fraction (50% haircut). Full appreciation tracks to acreEquity (illiquid); half flows to personal wealth. Consistent with Burlington CLT documentation (Champlain Housing Trust).

Framework design intent — macro constraints

The framework is explicitly designed to approach universal prosperity for the coming automation wave, with BU as treasury-backed community infrastructure. Absence of housing scarcity and fiscal limits is a stated hypothesis — that cooperative institutions structurally reduce these frictions — not a modeling oversight. This is a documented divergence from traditional macro models.

⚠ Known Limitations
No demographic structure

Agents lack age, retirement, disability, household size, or mortality. Acceptable for structural scenario comparison; not suitable for policy forecasting requiring life-cycle dynamics. Future: age cohorts and household transitions (see CONTRIBUTING.md).

No direct agent-to-agent interaction

All social effects mediated by aggregate zone parameters (SZH) rather than explicit networks. A small-world network structure would better model PTF zone clustering and SZH coherence. Noted as a future development direction in CONTRIBUTING.md.

automationRisk uniform distribution (v3.4 flag)

automationRisk ∈ [0.2, 1.0] is drawn from a uniform distribution across the population. Real automation exposure is highly bimodal and occupation-dependent (Frey & Osborne, 2013; Autor, 2015): low-routine cognitive workers face minimal risk; high-routine manual/clerical workers face extreme risk. The uniform assumption may understate polarization in High Automation scenarios. Priority calibration refinement item in CONTRIBUTING.md.

One-at-a-Time (OAT) sensitivity is not Sobol/LHC

OAT sensitivity varies one parameter at a time ±20% and records the poverty and BLEI response from actual model runs. It captures first-order single-parameter effects only. Parameter interactions and higher-order effects are not quantified. For rigorous uncertainty quantification, use the CSV export with external Sobol analysis in Python/R (see CONTRIBUTING.md).

No external validation

Parameters calibrated against analogues (Alaska PFD, CLT network, Mondragon) but outcomes not validated against deployment data. Phase 4 roadmap: validation against Fed SCF, CPS, ACS, BLS CES, and OECD inequality trajectories. Required before claims of predictive validity.

📚 References & Citations click to expand
Autor, D.H. (2015). Why are there still so many jobs? The history and future of workplace automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), 3–30. [automation risk]
Bass, F.M. (1969). A new product growth model for consumer durables. Management Science, 15(5), 215–227. [PTF diffusion model]
Carroll, C.D. (1997). Buffer-stock saving and the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(1), 1–55. [wage diminishing returns]
Champlain Housing Trust. Community Land Trust Program. champlainhousingtrust.org. [PTH 50% liquidity haircut]
Epstein, J.M. & Axtell, R. (1996). Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up. MIT Press. [ABM calibrated-unit convention]
Frey, C.B. & Osborne, M.A. (2013). The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? University of Oxford. [automationRisk calibration]
Grimm, V., et al. (2010). The ODD protocol: A review and first update. Ecological Modelling, 221(23), 2760–2768. [ABM documentation standard]
Johnson, D. & Claude (Anthropic). (2026). Basic Living Economic Index (BLEI). Better To Best Research Hub. CC BY 4.0. ↗ paper
Johnson, D. & Claude (Anthropic). (2026). Compassionism Framework Simulation v3.5. Better To Best Research Hub. CC BY 4.0. ↗ DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IO/QWTE2. [archived version of this tool]
Jones, D. & Marinescu, I. (2018). The labor market impacts of universal and permanent cash transfers. NBER Working Paper 24312. [Alaska PFD analogue]
Mullainathan, S. & Shafir, E. (2013). Scarcity: Why Having Too Little Means So Much. Times Books. [FBS bandwidth constraint, wage growth]
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. U.S. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. nber.org. [beta(5,2) recession calibration]
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2023). Consumer Expenditure Surveys. bls.gov/cex. [BASE_DAILY_COST $68.33/day]
Whyte, W.F. & Whyte, K.K. (1991). Making Mondragon. ILR Press. [BU conversion counterparty model]