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Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-33.28},{"id":"ref.20.hhPov.with","label":"Everyone in a household with too little wealth, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.hhWlthEnd","unit":"% of people at the last year","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of all people whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living.","value":48.16},{"id":"ref.20.hhPov.without","label":"Everyone in a household with too little wealth, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.base.hhWlthEnd","unit":"% of people at the last year","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of all people whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living.","value":38.05},{"id":"ref.20.hhPov.change","label":"Everyone in a household with too little wealth, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.hhWlthEnd.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"ref","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.hhWlthEnd.1","panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.hhWlthEnd.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":10.11},{"id":"ref.20.edc.with","label":"Income lost to rent and interest (EDC, measured), with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.edcM","unit":"% of income","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The extractive drain measured from payments: rent paid to landlords and interest on debt as a share of all income, the BU included; community housing payments count as zero.","value":16.28},{"id":"ref.20.edc.without","label":"Income lost to rent and interest (EDC, measured), no program","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.base.edcM","unit":"% of income","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The extractive drain measured from payments: rent paid to landlords and interest on debt as a share of all income, the BU included; community housing payments count as zero.","value":27.05},{"id":"ref.20.edc.change","label":"Income lost to rent and interest (EDC, measured), change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.edcM.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"ref","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.edcM.1","panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.edcM.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-10.78},{"id":"ref.20.h1pov","label":"Too little wealth if every Source dollar were backed (H1)","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.rows.h1.pov","unit":"% of adults at the last year","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The optimistic end: if new output backed every dollar the Source pays, prices would not rise from the program.","value":8.9},{"id":"adv.20.bO.with","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.bOAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the BLEI paper’s measure; in a household, its savings, pay and costs).","value":17.3},{"id":"adv.20.bO.without","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.base.bOAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the BLEI paper’s measure; in a household, its savings, pay and costs).","value":31.537},{"id":"adv.20.bO.change","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.dBO.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.dBO.1","panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.dBO.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-14.2},{"id":"adv.20.f0.with","label":"Below the cost of living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.fgt0PY","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":31.3},{"id":"adv.20.f0.without","label":"Below the cost of living, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.base.fgt0PY","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":65.975},{"id":"adv.20.f0.change","label":"Below the cost of living, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.dF0.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.dF0.1","panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.dF0.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-34.65},{"id":"adv.20.pov.with","label":"Too little wealth, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.pov","unit":"% of adults at the last year","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of adults with less than $25,000 of net wealth (what someone owns minus what they owe; in a couple, half of what the two own) in today’s money.","value":80},{"id":"adv.20.pov.without","label":"Too little wealth, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.base.pov","unit":"% of adults at the last year","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of adults with less than $25,000 of net wealth (what someone owns minus what they owe; in a couple, half of what the two own) in today’s money.","value":45.058},{"id":"adv.20.pov.change","label":"Too little wealth, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.dPov.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.dPov.1","panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.dPov.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":34.91},{"id":"adv.20.bN.with","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, same-rules reading, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.bNAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The same 30-day measure with the no-program rules applied to everyone, so the design’s own definitions cannot flatter it.","value":23.6},{"id":"adv.20.bN.without","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, same-rules reading, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.base.bNAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The same 30-day measure with the no-program rules applied to everyone, so the design’s own definitions cannot flatter it.","value":31.537},{"id":"adv.20.bN.change","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, same-rules reading, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.dBN.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.dBN.1","panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.dBN.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-7.91},{"id":"adv.20.kid.with","label":"Children below the cost of living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.hhCostKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":48.57},{"id":"adv.20.kid.without","label":"Children below the cost of living, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.base.hhCostKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":88.95},{"id":"adv.20.kid.change","label":"Children below the cost of living, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhCostKidPY.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhCostKidPY.1","panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhCostKidPY.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-40.37},{"id":"adv.20.infl","label":"Price rise caused by the program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.infl","unit":"% a year","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"How much faster prices rise each year because of the program’s new money (the cautious reading: what the Source pays out is new money except what new output backs).","value":59.5},{"id":"adv.20.cost","label":"Cost per adult","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.cost","unit":"dollars a year, today’s prices","f":"usd","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The program’s gross cost per adult each year, in today’s dollars.","value":28603},{"id":"adv.20.lev","label":"Price level at the last year (typical run)","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.pLevEndMed","unit":"times today’s prices","f":"lev","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"Where prices end up in the typical (median) one of the 500 runs; it compounds the yearly rise.","value":10302.975},{"id":"adv.20.hrs","label":"Change in hours worked","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.hrs","unit":"%","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"How much less (or more) people work, by the rate measured in the largest US study of unconditional cash.","value":-7.7},{"id":"adv.20.med","label":"Median savings at the last year","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.medWealth","unit":"dollars, today’s prices","f":"usd","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The savings of the adult in the middle, with the program.","value":7949},{"id":"adv.20.kidBO.with","label":"Children below 30 days of basic living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.hhBleiKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the household’s BLEI).","value":15.22},{"id":"adv.20.kidBO.without","label":"Children below 30 days of basic living, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.base.hhBleiKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the household’s BLEI).","value":45.86},{"id":"adv.20.kidBO.change","label":"Children below 30 days of basic living, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhBleiKidPY.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhBleiKidPY.1","panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhBleiKidPY.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-30.64},{"id":"adv.20.kidPov.with","label":"Children in a household with too little wealth, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.hhWlthKidEnd","unit":"% of children at the last year","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of children whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living (the household reading of the wealth line).","value":91.26},{"id":"adv.20.kidPov.without","label":"Children in a household with too little wealth, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.base.hhWlthKidEnd","unit":"% of children at the last year","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of children whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living (the household reading of the wealth line).","value":64.29},{"id":"adv.20.kidPov.change","label":"Children in a household with too little wealth, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhWlthKidEnd.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhWlthKidEnd.1","panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhWlthKidEnd.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":26.96},{"id":"adv.20.hhF0.with","label":"Everyone below the cost of living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.hhCostPY","unit":"% of person-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of all people, adults and children, whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living.","value":36.06},{"id":"adv.20.hhF0.without","label":"Everyone below the cost of living, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.base.hhCostPY","unit":"% of person-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of all people, adults and children, whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living.","value":72.27},{"id":"adv.20.hhF0.change","label":"Everyone below the cost of living, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhCostPY.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhCostPY.1","panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhCostPY.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-36.21},{"id":"adv.20.hhPov.with","label":"Everyone in a household with too little wealth, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.hhWlthEnd","unit":"% of people at the last year","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of all people whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living.","value":79.65},{"id":"adv.20.hhPov.without","label":"Everyone in a household with too little wealth, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.base.hhWlthEnd","unit":"% of people at the last year","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of all people whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living.","value":50},{"id":"adv.20.hhPov.change","label":"Everyone in a household with too little wealth, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhWlthEnd.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhWlthEnd.1","panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhWlthEnd.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":29.65},{"id":"adv.20.edc.with","label":"Income lost to rent and interest (EDC, measured), with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.edcM","unit":"% of income","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The extractive drain measured from payments: rent paid to landlords and interest on debt as a share of all income, the BU included; community housing payments count as zero.","value":19.31},{"id":"adv.20.edc.without","label":"Income lost to rent and interest (EDC, measured), no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.base.edcM","unit":"% of income","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The extractive drain measured from payments: rent paid to landlords and interest on debt as a share of all income, the BU included; community housing payments count as zero.","value":34.39},{"id":"adv.20.edc.change","label":"Income lost to rent and interest (EDC, measured), change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.edcM.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.edcM.1","panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.edcM.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-15.08},{"id":"adv.20.h1pov","label":"Too little wealth if every Source dollar were backed (H1)","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.h1.pov","unit":"% of adults at the last year","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The optimistic end: if new output backed every dollar the Source pays, prices would not rise from the program.","value":22.6},{"id":"st.20.bO.with","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.bOAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the BLEI paper’s measure; in a household, its savings, pay and costs).","value":35},{"id":"st.20.bO.without","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.base.bOAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the BLEI paper’s measure; in a household, its savings, pay and costs).","value":31.537},{"id":"st.20.bO.change","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.dBO.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.dBO.1","panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.dBO.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":3.43},{"id":"st.20.f0.with","label":"Below the cost of living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.fgt0PY","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":52.3},{"id":"st.20.f0.without","label":"Below the cost of living, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.base.fgt0PY","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":65.975},{"id":"st.20.f0.change","label":"Below the cost of living, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.dF0.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.dF0.1","panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.dF0.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-13.65},{"id":"st.20.pov.with","label":"Too little wealth, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.pov","unit":"% of adults at the last year","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of adults with less than $25,000 of net wealth (what someone owns minus what they owe; in a couple, half of what the two own) in today’s money.","value":75.4},{"id":"st.20.pov.without","label":"Too little wealth, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.base.pov","unit":"% of adults at the last year","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of adults with less than $25,000 of net wealth (what someone owns minus what they owe; in a couple, half of what the two own) in today’s money.","value":45.058},{"id":"st.20.pov.change","label":"Too little wealth, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.dPov.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.dPov.1","panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.dPov.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":30.39},{"id":"st.20.bN.with","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, same-rules reading, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.bNAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The same 30-day measure with the no-program rules applied to everyone, so the design’s own definitions cannot flatter it.","value":36.7},{"id":"st.20.bN.without","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, same-rules reading, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.base.bNAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The same 30-day measure with the no-program rules applied to everyone, so the design’s own definitions cannot flatter it.","value":31.537},{"id":"st.20.bN.change","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, same-rules reading, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.dBN.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.dBN.1","panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.dBN.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":5.18},{"id":"st.20.kid.with","label":"Children below the cost of living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.hhCostKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":73.6},{"id":"st.20.kid.without","label":"Children below the cost of living, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.base.hhCostKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":88.95},{"id":"st.20.kid.change","label":"Children below the cost of living, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhCostKidPY.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhCostKidPY.1","panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhCostKidPY.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-15.34},{"id":"st.20.infl","label":"Price rise caused by the program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.infl","unit":"% a year","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"How much faster prices rise each year because of the program’s new money (the cautious reading: what the Source pays out is new money except what new output backs).","value":26.8},{"id":"st.20.cost","label":"Cost per adult","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.cost","unit":"dollars a year, today’s prices","f":"usd","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The program’s gross cost per adult each year, in today’s dollars.","value":11723},{"id":"st.20.lev","label":"Price level at the last year (typical run)","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.pLevEndMed","unit":"times today’s prices","f":"lev","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"Where prices end up in the typical (median) one of the 500 runs; it compounds the yearly rise.","value":132.164},{"id":"st.20.hrs","label":"Change in hours worked","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.hrs","unit":"%","f":"s1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"How much less (or more) people work, by the rate measured in the largest US study of unconditional cash.","value":-3.7},{"id":"st.20.med","label":"Median savings at the last year","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.medWealth","unit":"dollars, today’s prices","f":"usd","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The savings of the adult in the middle, with the program.","value":-19},{"id":"st.20.kidBO.with","label":"Children below 30 days of basic living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.hhBleiKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the household’s BLEI).","value":46.81},{"id":"st.20.kidBO.without","label":"Children below 30 days of basic living, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.base.hhBleiKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the household’s BLEI).","value":45.86},{"id":"st.20.kidBO.change","label":"Children below 30 days of basic living, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhBleiKidPY.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhBleiKidPY.1","panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhBleiKidPY.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":0.94},{"id":"st.20.kidPov.with","label":"Children in a household with too little wealth, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.hhWlthKidEnd","unit":"% of children at the last year","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of children whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living (the household reading of the wealth line).","value":88.2},{"id":"st.20.kidPov.without","label":"Children in a household with too little wealth, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.base.hhWlthKidEnd","unit":"% of children at the last year","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of children whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living (the household reading of the wealth line).","value":64.29},{"id":"st.20.kidPov.change","label":"Children in a household with too little wealth, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhWlthKidEnd.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhWlthKidEnd.1","panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhWlthKidEnd.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":23.91},{"id":"st.20.hhF0.with","label":"Everyone below the cost of living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.hhCostPY","unit":"% of person-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of all people, adults and children, whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living.","value":58.16},{"id":"st.20.hhF0.without","label":"Everyone below the cost of living, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.base.hhCostPY","unit":"% of person-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of all people, adults and children, whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living.","value":72.27},{"id":"st.20.hhF0.change","label":"Everyone below the cost of living, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhCostPY.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhCostPY.1","panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhCostPY.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-14.11},{"id":"st.20.hhPov.with","label":"Everyone in a household with too little wealth, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.hhWlthEnd","unit":"% of people at the last year","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of all people whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living.","value":77.02},{"id":"st.20.hhPov.without","label":"Everyone in a household with too little wealth, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.base.hhWlthEnd","unit":"% of people at the last year","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of all people whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living.","value":50},{"id":"st.20.hhPov.change","label":"Everyone in a household with too little wealth, change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhWlthEnd.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhWlthEnd.1","panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhWlthEnd.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":27.02},{"id":"st.20.edc.with","label":"Income lost to rent and interest (EDC, measured), with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.edcM","unit":"% of income","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The extractive drain measured from payments: rent paid to landlords and interest on debt as a share of all income, the BU included; community housing payments count as zero.","value":26.94},{"id":"st.20.edc.without","label":"Income lost to rent and interest (EDC, measured), no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.base.edcM","unit":"% of income","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The extractive drain measured from payments: rent paid to landlords and interest on debt as a share of all income, the BU included; community housing payments count as zero.","value":34.39},{"id":"st.20.edc.change","label":"Income lost to rent and interest (EDC, measured), change against no program","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.d53.edcM.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.d53.edcM.1","panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.d53.edcM.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-7.45},{"id":"st.20.h1pov","label":"Too little wealth if every Source dollar were backed (H1)","src":"panels.20.envs.st.rows.h1.pov","unit":"% of adults at the last year","f":"p1","env":"st","years":20,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The optimistic end: if new output backed every dollar the Source pays, prices would not rise from the program.","value":35.9},{"id":"ref.40.bO.with","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.bOAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the BLEI paper’s measure; in a household, its savings, pay and costs).","value":11.1},{"id":"ref.40.bO.without","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.base.bOAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the BLEI paper’s measure; in a household, its savings, pay and costs).","value":28.65},{"id":"ref.40.bO.change","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.dBO.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.dBO.1","panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.dBO.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-17.54},{"id":"ref.40.f0.with","label":"Below the cost of living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.fgt0PY","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":16.2},{"id":"ref.40.f0.without","label":"Below the cost of living, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.base.fgt0PY","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":42.104},{"id":"ref.40.f0.change","label":"Below the cost of living, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.dF0.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.dF0.1","panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.dF0.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-25.93},{"id":"ref.40.pov.with","label":"Too little wealth, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.pov","unit":"% of adults at the last year","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of adults with less than $25,000 of net wealth (what someone owns minus what they owe; in a couple, half of what the two own) in today’s money.","value":32.2},{"id":"ref.40.pov.without","label":"Too little wealth, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.base.pov","unit":"% of adults at the last year","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of adults with less than $25,000 of net wealth (what someone owns minus what they owe; in a couple, half of what the two own) in today’s money.","value":31.376},{"id":"ref.40.pov.change","label":"Too little wealth, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.dPov.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.dPov.1","panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.dPov.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":0.78},{"id":"ref.40.bN.with","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, same-rules reading, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.bNAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The same 30-day measure with the no-program rules applied to everyone, so the design’s own definitions cannot flatter it.","value":13.1},{"id":"ref.40.bN.without","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, same-rules reading, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.base.bNAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The same 30-day measure with the no-program rules applied to everyone, so the design’s own definitions cannot flatter it.","value":28.65},{"id":"ref.40.bN.change","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, same-rules reading, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.dBN.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.dBN.1","panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.dBN.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-15.55},{"id":"ref.40.kid.with","label":"Children below the cost of living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.hhCostKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":28.28},{"id":"ref.40.kid.without","label":"Children below the cost of living, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.base.hhCostKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":68.34},{"id":"ref.40.kid.change","label":"Children below the cost of living, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.hhCostKidPY.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.hhCostKidPY.1","panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.hhCostKidPY.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-40.06},{"id":"ref.40.infl","label":"Price rise caused by the program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.infl","unit":"% a year","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"How much faster prices rise each year because of the program’s new money (the cautious reading: what the Source pays out is new money except what new output backs).","value":48.3},{"id":"ref.40.cost","label":"Cost per adult","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.cost","unit":"dollars a year, today’s prices","f":"usd","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The program’s gross cost per adult each year, in today’s dollars.","value":30438},{"id":"ref.40.lev","label":"Price level at the last year (typical run)","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.pLevEndMed","unit":"times today’s prices","f":"lev","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"Where prices end up in the typical (median) one of the 500 runs; it compounds the yearly rise.","value":4662788.987},{"id":"ref.40.hrs","label":"Change in hours worked","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.hrs","unit":"%","f":"s1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"How much less (or more) people work, by the rate measured in the largest US study of unconditional cash.","value":-5.4},{"id":"ref.40.med","label":"Median savings at the last year","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.medWealth","unit":"dollars, today’s prices","f":"usd","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The savings of the adult in the middle, with the program.","value":40953},{"id":"ref.40.kidBO.with","label":"Children below 30 days of basic living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.hhBleiKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the household’s BLEI).","value":12.52},{"id":"ref.40.kidBO.without","label":"Children below 30 days of basic living, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.base.hhBleiKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the household’s BLEI).","value":46.31},{"id":"ref.40.kidBO.change","label":"Children below 30 days of basic living, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.hhBleiKidPY.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.hhBleiKidPY.1","panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.hhBleiKidPY.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-33.79},{"id":"ref.40.kidPov.with","label":"Children in a household with too little wealth, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.hhWlthKidEnd","unit":"% of children at the last year","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of children whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living (the household reading of the wealth line).","value":52.01},{"id":"ref.40.kidPov.without","label":"Children in a household with too little wealth, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.base.hhWlthKidEnd","unit":"% of children at the last year","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of children whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living (the household reading of the wealth line).","value":53.64},{"id":"ref.40.kidPov.change","label":"Children in a household with too little wealth, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.hhWlthKidEnd.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.hhWlthKidEnd.1","panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.hhWlthKidEnd.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-1.63},{"id":"ref.40.hhF0.with","label":"Everyone below the cost of living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.hhCostPY","unit":"% of person-years","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of all people, adults and children, whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living.","value":19.5},{"id":"ref.40.hhF0.without","label":"Everyone below the cost of living, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.base.hhCostPY","unit":"% of person-years","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of all people, adults and children, whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living.","value":49.3},{"id":"ref.40.hhF0.change","label":"Everyone below the cost of living, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.hhCostPY.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.hhCostPY.1","panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.hhCostPY.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-29.8},{"id":"ref.40.hhPov.with","label":"Everyone in a household with too little wealth, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.hhWlthEnd","unit":"% of people at the last year","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of all people whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living.","value":37.4},{"id":"ref.40.hhPov.without","label":"Everyone in a household with too little wealth, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.base.hhWlthEnd","unit":"% of people at the last year","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of all people whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living.","value":37.45},{"id":"ref.40.hhPov.change","label":"Everyone in a household with too little wealth, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.hhWlthEnd.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.hhWlthEnd.1","panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.hhWlthEnd.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-0.05},{"id":"ref.40.edc.with","label":"Income lost to rent and interest (EDC, measured), with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.edcM","unit":"% of income","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The extractive drain measured from payments: rent paid to landlords and interest on debt as a share of all income, the BU included; community housing payments count as zero.","value":15.5},{"id":"ref.40.edc.without","label":"Income lost to rent and interest (EDC, measured), no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.base.edcM","unit":"% of income","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The extractive drain measured from payments: rent paid to landlords and interest on debt as a share of all income, the BU included; community housing payments count as zero.","value":24.76},{"id":"ref.40.edc.change","label":"Income lost to rent and interest (EDC, measured), change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.edcM.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.edcM.1","panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.d53.edcM.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-9.26},{"id":"ref.40.h1pov","label":"Too little wealth if every Source dollar were backed (H1)","src":"panels.40.envs.ref.rows.h1.pov","unit":"% of adults at the last year","f":"p1","env":"ref","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The optimistic end: if new output backed every dollar the Source pays, prices would not rise from the program.","value":5.6},{"id":"adv.40.bO.with","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.bOAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the BLEI paper’s measure; in a household, its savings, pay and costs).","value":24.2},{"id":"adv.40.bO.without","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.base.bOAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the BLEI paper’s measure; in a household, its savings, pay and costs).","value":40.842},{"id":"adv.40.bO.change","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.dBO.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.dBO.1","panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.dBO.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-16.66},{"id":"adv.40.f0.with","label":"Below the cost of living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.fgt0PY","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":41},{"id":"adv.40.f0.without","label":"Below the cost of living, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.base.fgt0PY","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":72.638},{"id":"adv.40.f0.change","label":"Below the cost of living, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.dF0.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.dF0.1","panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.dF0.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-31.63},{"id":"adv.40.pov.with","label":"Too little wealth, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.pov","unit":"% of adults at the last year","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of adults with less than $25,000 of net wealth (what someone owns minus what they owe; in a couple, half of what the two own) in today’s money.","value":93.2},{"id":"adv.40.pov.without","label":"Too little wealth, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.base.pov","unit":"% of adults at the last year","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of adults with less than $25,000 of net wealth (what someone owns minus what they owe; in a couple, half of what the two own) in today’s money.","value":59.265},{"id":"adv.40.pov.change","label":"Too little wealth, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.dPov.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.dPov.1","panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.dPov.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":33.9},{"id":"adv.40.bN.with","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, same-rules reading, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.bNAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The same 30-day measure with the no-program rules applied to everyone, so the design’s own definitions cannot flatter it.","value":35.6},{"id":"adv.40.bN.without","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, same-rules reading, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.base.bNAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The same 30-day measure with the no-program rules applied to everyone, so the design’s own definitions cannot flatter it.","value":40.842},{"id":"adv.40.bN.change","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, same-rules reading, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.dBN.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.dBN.1","panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.dBN.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-5.24},{"id":"adv.40.kid.with","label":"Children below the cost of living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.hhCostKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":59.4},{"id":"adv.40.kid.without","label":"Children below the cost of living, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.base.hhCostKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":92.25},{"id":"adv.40.kid.change","label":"Children below the cost of living, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhCostKidPY.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhCostKidPY.1","panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhCostKidPY.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-32.85},{"id":"adv.40.infl","label":"Price rise caused by the program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.infl","unit":"% a year","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"How much faster prices rise each year because of the program’s new money (the cautious reading: what the Source pays out is new money except what new output backs).","value":70.9},{"id":"adv.40.cost","label":"Cost per adult","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.cost","unit":"dollars a year, today’s prices","f":"usd","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The program’s gross cost per adult each year, in today’s dollars.","value":27885},{"id":"adv.40.lev","label":"Price level at the last year (typical run)","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.pLevEndMed","unit":"times today’s prices","f":"lev","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"Where prices end up in the typical (median) one of the 500 runs; it compounds the yearly rise.","value":2522187522.63},{"id":"adv.40.hrs","label":"Change in hours worked","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.hrs","unit":"%","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"How much less (or more) people work, by the rate measured in the largest US study of unconditional cash.","value":-10.4},{"id":"adv.40.med","label":"Median savings at the last year","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.medWealth","unit":"dollars, today’s prices","f":"usd","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The savings of the adult in the middle, with the program.","value":50},{"id":"adv.40.kidBO.with","label":"Children below 30 days of basic living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.hhBleiKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the household’s BLEI).","value":19.21},{"id":"adv.40.kidBO.without","label":"Children below 30 days of basic living, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.base.hhBleiKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the household’s BLEI).","value":58.25},{"id":"adv.40.kidBO.change","label":"Children below 30 days of basic living, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhBleiKidPY.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhBleiKidPY.1","panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhBleiKidPY.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-39.04},{"id":"adv.40.kidPov.with","label":"Children in a household with too little wealth, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.hhWlthKidEnd","unit":"% of children at the last year","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of children whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living (the household reading of the wealth line).","value":97.52},{"id":"adv.40.kidPov.without","label":"Children in a household with too little wealth, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.base.hhWlthKidEnd","unit":"% of children at the last year","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of children whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living (the household reading of the wealth line).","value":78.95},{"id":"adv.40.kidPov.change","label":"Children in a household with too little wealth, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhWlthKidEnd.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhWlthKidEnd.1","panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhWlthKidEnd.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":18.57},{"id":"adv.40.hhF0.with","label":"Everyone below the cost of living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.hhCostPY","unit":"% of person-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of all people, adults and children, whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living.","value":46.05},{"id":"adv.40.hhF0.without","label":"Everyone below the cost of living, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.base.hhCostPY","unit":"% of person-years","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of all people, adults and children, whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living.","value":78.01},{"id":"adv.40.hhF0.change","label":"Everyone below the cost of living, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhCostPY.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhCostPY.1","panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhCostPY.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-31.96},{"id":"adv.40.hhPov.with","label":"Everyone in a household with too little wealth, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.hhWlthEnd","unit":"% of people at the last year","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of all people whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living.","value":92.58},{"id":"adv.40.hhPov.without","label":"Everyone in a household with too little wealth, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.base.hhWlthEnd","unit":"% of people at the last year","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of all people whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living.","value":64.34},{"id":"adv.40.hhPov.change","label":"Everyone in a household with too little wealth, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhWlthEnd.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhWlthEnd.1","panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.hhWlthEnd.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":28.24},{"id":"adv.40.edc.with","label":"Income lost to rent and interest (EDC, measured), with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.edcM","unit":"% of income","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The extractive drain measured from payments: rent paid to landlords and interest on debt as a share of all income, the BU included; community housing payments count as zero.","value":21.83},{"id":"adv.40.edc.without","label":"Income lost to rent and interest (EDC, measured), no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.base.edcM","unit":"% of income","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The extractive drain measured from payments: rent paid to landlords and interest on debt as a share of all income, the BU included; community housing payments count as zero.","value":39.49},{"id":"adv.40.edc.change","label":"Income lost to rent and interest (EDC, measured), change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.edcM.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.edcM.1","panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.d53.edcM.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-17.66},{"id":"adv.40.h1pov","label":"Too little wealth if every Source dollar were backed (H1)","src":"panels.40.envs.adv.rows.h1.pov","unit":"% of adults at the last year","f":"p1","env":"adv","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The optimistic end: if new output backed every dollar the Source pays, prices would not rise from the program.","value":36.6},{"id":"st.40.bO.with","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.bOAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the BLEI paper’s measure; in a household, its savings, pay and costs).","value":50.6},{"id":"st.40.bO.without","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.base.bOAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the BLEI paper’s measure; in a household, its savings, pay and costs).","value":40.842},{"id":"st.40.bO.change","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.dBO.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.dBO.1","panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.dBO.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":9.79},{"id":"st.40.f0.with","label":"Below the cost of living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.fgt0PY","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":62.1},{"id":"st.40.f0.without","label":"Below the cost of living, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.base.fgt0PY","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of adults whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":72.638},{"id":"st.40.f0.change","label":"Below the cost of living, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.dF0.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.dF0.1","panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.dF0.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-10.56},{"id":"st.40.pov.with","label":"Too little wealth, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.pov","unit":"% of adults at the last year","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of adults with less than $25,000 of net wealth (what someone owns minus what they owe; in a couple, half of what the two own) in today’s money.","value":92.8},{"id":"st.40.pov.without","label":"Too little wealth, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.base.pov","unit":"% of adults at the last year","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of adults with less than $25,000 of net wealth (what someone owns minus what they owe; in a couple, half of what the two own) in today’s money.","value":59.265},{"id":"st.40.pov.change","label":"Too little wealth, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.dPov.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.dPov.1","panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.dPov.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":33.53},{"id":"st.40.bN.with","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, same-rules reading, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.bNAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The same 30-day measure with the no-program rules applied to everyone, so the design’s own definitions cannot flatter it.","value":53.5},{"id":"st.40.bN.without","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, same-rules reading, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.base.bNAPy","unit":"% of adult-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The same 30-day measure with the no-program rules applied to everyone, so the design’s own definitions cannot flatter it.","value":40.842},{"id":"st.40.bN.change","label":"Below 30 days of basic living, same-rules reading, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.dBN.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.dBN.1","panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.dBN.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":12.63},{"id":"st.40.kid.with","label":"Children below the cost of living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.hhCostKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":80.73},{"id":"st.40.kid.without","label":"Children below the cost of living, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.base.hhCostKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living (the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children).","value":92.25},{"id":"st.40.kid.change","label":"Children below the cost of living, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhCostKidPY.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhCostKidPY.1","panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhCostKidPY.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-11.53},{"id":"st.40.infl","label":"Price rise caused by the program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.infl","unit":"% a year","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"How much faster prices rise each year because of the program’s new money (the cautious reading: what the Source pays out is new money except what new output backs).","value":31.5},{"id":"st.40.cost","label":"Cost per adult","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.cost","unit":"dollars a year, today’s prices","f":"usd","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The program’s gross cost per adult each year, in today’s dollars.","value":11724},{"id":"st.40.lev","label":"Price level at the last year (typical run)","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.pLevEndMed","unit":"times today’s prices","f":"lev","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"Where prices end up in the typical (median) one of the 500 runs; it compounds the yearly rise.","value":94867.638},{"id":"st.40.hrs","label":"Change in hours worked","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.hrs","unit":"%","f":"s1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"How much less (or more) people work, by the rate measured in the largest US study of unconditional cash.","value":-4.7},{"id":"st.40.med","label":"Median savings at the last year","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.medWealth","unit":"dollars, today’s prices","f":"usd","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The savings of the adult in the middle, with the program.","value":0},{"id":"st.40.kidBO.with","label":"Children below 30 days of basic living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.hhBleiKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the household’s BLEI).","value":61.11},{"id":"st.40.kidBO.without","label":"Children below 30 days of basic living, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.base.hhBleiKidPY","unit":"% of child-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of children whose household’s savings, pay and support would cover fewer than 30 days of basic living (the household’s BLEI).","value":58.25},{"id":"st.40.kidBO.change","label":"Children below 30 days of basic living, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhBleiKidPY.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhBleiKidPY.1","panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhBleiKidPY.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":2.86},{"id":"st.40.kidPov.with","label":"Children in a household with too little wealth, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.hhWlthKidEnd","unit":"% of children at the last year","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of children whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living (the household reading of the wealth line).","value":97.14},{"id":"st.40.kidPov.without","label":"Children in a household with too little wealth, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.base.hhWlthKidEnd","unit":"% of children at the last year","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of children whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living (the household reading of the wealth line).","value":78.95},{"id":"st.40.kidPov.change","label":"Children in a household with too little wealth, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhWlthKidEnd.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhWlthKidEnd.1","panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhWlthKidEnd.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":18.19},{"id":"st.40.hhF0.with","label":"Everyone below the cost of living, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.hhCostPY","unit":"% of person-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of all people, adults and children, whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living.","value":67.19},{"id":"st.40.hhF0.without","label":"Everyone below the cost of living, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.base.hhCostPY","unit":"% of person-years","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"In a typical year, the share of all people, adults and children, whose household’s income falls short of the household’s cost of a basic living.","value":78.01},{"id":"st.40.hhF0.change","label":"Everyone below the cost of living, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhCostPY.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhCostPY.1","panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhCostPY.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-10.82},{"id":"st.40.hhPov.with","label":"Everyone in a household with too little wealth, with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.hhWlthEnd","unit":"% of people at the last year","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of all people whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living.","value":92.6},{"id":"st.40.hhPov.without","label":"Everyone in a household with too little wealth, no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.base.hhWlthEnd","unit":"% of people at the last year","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"At the end of the run, the share of all people whose household’s net wealth is below six months of its own cost of living.","value":64.34},{"id":"st.40.hhPov.change","label":"Everyone in a household with too little wealth, change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhWlthEnd.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhWlthEnd.1","panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.d53.hhWlthEnd.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":28.26},{"id":"st.40.edc.with","label":"Income lost to rent and interest (EDC, measured), with Compassionism","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.edcM","unit":"% of income","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The extractive drain measured from payments: rent paid to landlords and interest on debt as a share of all income, the BU included; community housing payments count as zero.","value":31.39},{"id":"st.40.edc.without","label":"Income lost to rent and interest (EDC, measured), no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.base.edcM","unit":"% of income","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The extractive drain measured from payments: rent paid to landlords and interest on debt as a share of all income, the BU included; community housing payments count as zero.","value":39.49},{"id":"st.40.edc.change","label":"Income lost to rent and interest (EDC, measured), change against no program","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.d53.edcM.0","unit":"percentage points","f":"s1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"derived","ci":["panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.d53.edcM.1","panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.d53.edcM.2"],"meaning":"The paired difference over the same 500 runs; the 95% interval is beside it. Negative means fewer people below the line.","value":-8.1},{"id":"st.40.h1pov","label":"Too little wealth if every Source dollar were backed (H1)","src":"panels.40.envs.st.rows.h1.pov","unit":"% of adults at the last year","f":"p1","env":"st","years":40,"basis":"simulated","meaning":"The optimistic end: if new output backed every dollar the Source pays, prices would not rise from the program.","value":50.6},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniD.y7.with","label":"Gini of disposable income, Year 7, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.rep.y7.giniD","basis":"simulated","meaning":"As published: the sample Gini of the 500 adults multiplied by n/(n − 1), which estimates the Gini of the population the adults are drawn from.","value":0.2942},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniD.y7.with.finite","label":"Gini of disposable income, Year 7, with Compassionism: the 500 adults themselves, uncorrected","src":"derived.giniFinite.panels.20.ref.release.y7.giniD","basis":"derived","meaning":"The Gini of the 500 simulated adults themselves, without the small-sample correction: the published figure multiplied by (n − 1)/n.","value":0.2936},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniX.y7.with","label":"Gini of income counting price cuts, Year 7, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.rep.y7.giniX","basis":"simulated","meaning":"As published: the sample Gini of the 500 adults multiplied by n/(n − 1), which estimates the Gini of the population the adults are drawn from.","value":0.2297},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniX.y7.with.finite","label":"Gini of income counting price cuts, Year 7, with Compassionism: the 500 adults themselves, uncorrected","src":"derived.giniFinite.panels.20.ref.release.y7.giniX","basis":"derived","meaning":"The Gini of the 500 simulated adults themselves, without the small-sample correction: the published figure multiplied by (n − 1)/n.","value":0.2292},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniW.y7.with","label":"Gini of wealth (debts counted as zero), Year 7, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.rep.y7.giniW","basis":"simulated","meaning":"As published: the sample Gini of the 500 adults multiplied by n/(n − 1), which estimates the Gini of the population the adults are drawn from.","value":0.6262},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniW.y7.with.finite","label":"Gini of wealth (debts counted as zero), Year 7, with Compassionism: the 500 adults themselves, uncorrected","src":"derived.giniFinite.panels.20.ref.release.y7.giniW","basis":"derived","meaning":"The Gini of the 500 simulated adults themselves, without the small-sample correction: the published figure multiplied by (n − 1)/n.","value":0.6249},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniD.end.with","label":"Gini of disposable income, the last year, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.rep.end.giniD","basis":"simulated","meaning":"As published: the sample Gini of the 500 adults multiplied by n/(n − 1), which estimates the Gini of the population the adults are drawn from.","value":0.27},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniD.end.with.finite","label":"Gini of disposable income, the last year, with Compassionism: the 500 adults themselves, uncorrected","src":"derived.giniFinite.panels.20.ref.release.end.giniD","basis":"derived","meaning":"The Gini of the 500 simulated adults themselves, without the small-sample correction: the published figure multiplied by (n − 1)/n.","value":0.2695},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniX.end.with","label":"Gini of income counting price cuts, the last year, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.rep.end.giniX","basis":"simulated","meaning":"As published: the sample Gini of the 500 adults multiplied by n/(n − 1), which estimates the Gini of the population the adults are drawn from.","value":0.2091},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniX.end.with.finite","label":"Gini of income counting price cuts, the last year, with Compassionism: the 500 adults themselves, uncorrected","src":"derived.giniFinite.panels.20.ref.release.end.giniX","basis":"derived","meaning":"The Gini of the 500 simulated adults themselves, without the small-sample correction: the published figure multiplied by (n − 1)/n.","value":0.2087},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniW.end.with","label":"Gini of wealth (debts counted as zero), the last year, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.rep.end.giniW","basis":"simulated","meaning":"As published: the sample Gini of the 500 adults multiplied by n/(n − 1), which estimates the Gini of the population the adults are drawn from.","value":0.4875},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniW.end.with.finite","label":"Gini of wealth (debts counted as zero), the last year, with Compassionism: the 500 adults themselves, uncorrected","src":"derived.giniFinite.panels.20.ref.release.end.giniW","basis":"derived","meaning":"The Gini of the 500 simulated adults themselves, without the small-sample correction: the published figure multiplied by (n − 1)/n.","value":0.4865},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniD.y7.without","label":"Gini of disposable income, Year 7, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.base.rep.y7.giniD","basis":"simulated","meaning":"As published: the sample Gini of the 500 adults multiplied by n/(n − 1), which estimates the Gini of the population the adults are drawn from.","value":0.2393},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniD.y7.without.finite","label":"Gini of disposable income, Year 7, no program: the 500 adults themselves, uncorrected","src":"derived.giniFinite.panels.20.ref.base.y7.giniD","basis":"derived","meaning":"The Gini of the 500 simulated adults themselves, without the small-sample correction: the published figure multiplied by (n − 1)/n.","value":0.2388},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniX.y7.without","label":"Gini of income counting price cuts, Year 7, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.base.rep.y7.giniX","basis":"simulated","meaning":"As published: the sample Gini of the 500 adults multiplied by n/(n − 1), which estimates the Gini of the population the adults are drawn from.","value":0.2393},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniX.y7.without.finite","label":"Gini of income counting price cuts, Year 7, no program: the 500 adults themselves, uncorrected","src":"derived.giniFinite.panels.20.ref.base.y7.giniX","basis":"derived","meaning":"The Gini of the 500 simulated adults themselves, without the small-sample correction: the published figure multiplied by (n − 1)/n.","value":0.2388},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniW.y7.without","label":"Gini of wealth (debts counted as zero), Year 7, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.base.rep.y7.giniW","basis":"simulated","meaning":"As published: the sample Gini of the 500 adults multiplied by n/(n − 1), which estimates the Gini of the population the adults are drawn from.","value":0.7741},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniW.y7.without.finite","label":"Gini of wealth (debts counted as zero), Year 7, no program: the 500 adults themselves, uncorrected","src":"derived.giniFinite.panels.20.ref.base.y7.giniW","basis":"derived","meaning":"The Gini of the 500 simulated adults themselves, without the small-sample correction: the published figure multiplied by (n − 1)/n.","value":0.7726},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniD.end.without","label":"Gini of disposable income, the last year, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.base.rep.end.giniD","basis":"simulated","meaning":"As published: the sample Gini of the 500 adults multiplied by n/(n − 1), which estimates the Gini of the population the adults are drawn from.","value":0.246},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniD.end.without.finite","label":"Gini of disposable income, the last year, no program: the 500 adults themselves, uncorrected","src":"derived.giniFinite.panels.20.ref.base.end.giniD","basis":"derived","meaning":"The Gini of the 500 simulated adults themselves, without the small-sample correction: the published figure multiplied by (n − 1)/n.","value":0.2455},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniX.end.without","label":"Gini of income counting price cuts, the last year, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.base.rep.end.giniX","basis":"simulated","meaning":"As published: the sample Gini of the 500 adults multiplied by n/(n − 1), which estimates the Gini of the population the adults are drawn from.","value":0.246},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniX.end.without.finite","label":"Gini of income counting price cuts, the last year, no program: the 500 adults themselves, uncorrected","src":"derived.giniFinite.panels.20.ref.base.end.giniX","basis":"derived","meaning":"The Gini of the 500 simulated adults themselves, without the small-sample correction: the published figure multiplied by (n − 1)/n.","value":0.2455},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniW.end.without","label":"Gini of wealth (debts counted as zero), the last year, no program","src":"panels.20.envs.ref.base.rep.end.giniW","basis":"simulated","meaning":"As published: the sample Gini of the 500 adults multiplied by n/(n − 1), which estimates the Gini of the population the adults are drawn from.","value":0.755},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"ref","years":20,"id":"ref.20.giniW.end.without.finite","label":"Gini of wealth (debts counted as zero), the last year, no program: the 500 adults themselves, uncorrected","src":"derived.giniFinite.panels.20.ref.base.end.giniW","basis":"derived","meaning":"The Gini of the 500 simulated adults themselves, without the small-sample correction: the published figure multiplied by (n − 1)/n.","value":0.7535},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"adv","years":20,"id":"adv.20.giniD.y7.with","label":"Gini of disposable income, Year 7, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.rep.y7.giniD","basis":"simulated","meaning":"As published: the sample Gini of the 500 adults multiplied by n/(n − 1), which estimates the Gini of the population the adults are drawn from.","value":0.3059},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"adv","years":20,"id":"adv.20.giniD.y7.with.finite","label":"Gini of disposable income, Year 7, with Compassionism: the 500 adults themselves, uncorrected","src":"derived.giniFinite.panels.20.adv.release.y7.giniD","basis":"derived","meaning":"The Gini of the 500 simulated adults themselves, without the small-sample correction: the published figure multiplied by (n − 1)/n.","value":0.3053},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"adv","years":20,"id":"adv.20.giniX.y7.with","label":"Gini of income counting price cuts, Year 7, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.rep.y7.giniX","basis":"simulated","meaning":"As published: the sample Gini of the 500 adults multiplied by n/(n − 1), which estimates the Gini of the population the adults are drawn from.","value":0.2333},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"adv","years":20,"id":"adv.20.giniX.y7.with.finite","label":"Gini of income counting price cuts, Year 7, with Compassionism: the 500 adults themselves, uncorrected","src":"derived.giniFinite.panels.20.adv.release.y7.giniX","basis":"derived","meaning":"The Gini of the 500 simulated adults themselves, without the small-sample correction: the published figure multiplied by (n − 1)/n.","value":0.2328},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one adult has everything)","f":"n4","env":"adv","years":20,"id":"adv.20.giniW.y7.with","label":"Gini of wealth (debts counted as zero), Year 7, with Compassionism","src":"panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.rep.y7.giniW","basis":"simulated","meaning":"As published: the sample Gini of the 500 adults multiplied by n/(n − 1), which estimates the Gini of the population the adults are drawn from.","value":0.6426},{"unit":"Gini (0 = equal, 1 = one 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(",{"src":"us.adv.rows.none.hh.wealth.end.singleParent.median","f":"usd"},")"]}],[{"p":["Single adults"]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.us.scfHH.single.neg","f":"p1"}," (",{"src":"us.ref.us.scfHH.single.median","f":"usd"},")"]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.none.hh.wealth.y0.single.neg","f":"p1"}," (",{"src":"us.ref.rows.none.hh.wealth.y0.single.median","f":"usd"},")"]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.none.hh.wealth.y7.single.neg","f":"p1"}," (",{"src":"us.ref.rows.none.hh.wealth.y7.single.median","f":"usd"},")"]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.none.hh.wealth.end.single.neg","f":"p1"}," (",{"src":"us.ref.rows.none.hh.wealth.end.single.median","f":"usd"},")"]},{"p":[{"src":"us.adv.rows.none.hh.wealth.end.single.neg","f":"p1"}," (",{"src":"us.adv.rows.none.hh.wealth.end.single.median","f":"usd"},")"]}]]},{"id":"rel-us2","title":"The readings that change a known choice, no program only (adults)","columns":["Reading","Median savings per adult: first year / Year 7","In debt, Year 7","Wealth Gini, first year","Income Gini, Year 7","Below the poverty line: Year 7 / Adverse year 20","Leaving poverty in a spell’s first year"],"rows":[[{"p":["As modeled (households, survey wealth, graded spending)"]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.none.wealth.y0.median","f":"usd"}," / ",{"src":"us.ref.rows.none.wealth.y7.median","f":"usd"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.none.wealth.y7.neg","f":"p1"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.none.wealth.y0.giniKept","f":"n3"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.none.giniD.y7","f":"n3"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.none.fpl.y7","f":"p1"}," / ",{"src":"us.adv.rows.none.fpl.end","f":"p1"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.none.spells.fpl.exit1","f":"n2"}]}],[{"p":["v5.2’s population: adults alone, the model’s own savings draw, everyone paying the full basket"]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.v52.wealth.y0.median","f":"usd"}," / ",{"src":"us.ref.rows.v52.wealth.y7.median","f":"usd"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.v52.wealth.y7.neg","f":"p1"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.v52.wealth.y0.giniKept","f":"n3"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.v52.giniD.y7","f":"n3"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.v52.fpl.y7","f":"p1"}," / ",{"src":"us.adv.rows.v52.fpl.end","f":"p1"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.v52.spells.fpl.exit1","f":"n2"}]}],[{"p":["Automation risk linked to wages"]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.ltr.wealth.y0.median","f":"usd"}," / ",{"src":"us.ref.rows.ltr.wealth.y7.median","f":"usd"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.ltr.wealth.y7.neg","f":"p1"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.ltr.wealth.y0.giniKept","f":"n3"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.ltr.giniD.y7","f":"n3"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.ltr.fpl.y7","f":"p1"}," / ",{"src":"us.adv.rows.ltr.fpl.end","f":"p1"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.ltr.spells.fpl.exit1","f":"n2"}]}],[{"p":["Wages spread as in the survey"]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.lts.wealth.y0.median","f":"usd"}," / ",{"src":"us.ref.rows.lts.wealth.y7.median","f":"usd"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.lts.wealth.y7.neg","f":"p1"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.lts.wealth.y0.giniKept","f":"n3"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.lts.giniD.y7","f":"n3"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.lts.fpl.y7","f":"p1"}," / ",{"src":"us.adv.rows.lts.fpl.end","f":"p1"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.lts.spells.fpl.exit1","f":"n2"}]}],[{"p":["Wages centered on the survey’s median"]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.ltm.wealth.y0.median","f":"usd"}," / ",{"src":"us.ref.rows.ltm.wealth.y7.median","f":"usd"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.ltm.wealth.y7.neg","f":"p1"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.ltm.wealth.y0.giniKept","f":"n3"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.ltm.giniD.y7","f":"n3"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.ltm.fpl.y7","f":"p1"}," / ",{"src":"us.adv.rows.ltm.fpl.end","f":"p1"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.ltm.spells.fpl.exit1","f":"n2"}]}],[{"p":["All three"]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.lta.wealth.y0.median","f":"usd"}," / ",{"src":"us.ref.rows.lta.wealth.y7.median","f":"usd"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.lta.wealth.y7.neg","f":"p1"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.lta.wealth.y0.giniKept","f":"n3"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.lta.giniD.y7","f":"n3"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.lta.fpl.y7","f":"p1"}," / ",{"src":"us.adv.rows.lta.fpl.end","f":"p1"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.lta.spells.fpl.exit1","f":"n2"}]}],[{"p":["Aging: children grow up and are born; estates pass on"]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.ag.wealth.y0.median","f":"usd"}," / ",{"src":"us.ref.rows.ag.wealth.y7.median","f":"usd"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.ag.wealth.y7.neg","f":"p1"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.ag.wealth.y0.giniKept","f":"n3"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.ag.giniD.y7","f":"n3"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.ag.fpl.y7","f":"p1"}," / ",{"src":"us.adv.rows.ag.fpl.end","f":"p1"}]},{"p":[{"src":"us.ref.rows.ag.spells.fpl.exit1","f":"n2"}]}]]}],"text":{"lede":"The same {{meta.agents|int}} simulated adults and their children, living in households as US adults do, are followed for 20 or 40 years, once with Compassionism and once with no program, in three environments. Every figure is an average over {{meta.seeds|int}} paired runs: each run follows the same adults twice, with and without the program, on the same random luck. These pages show what the model’s assumptions imply, not a forecast. The model has not yet been reviewed by an independent economist.","results.lead":"This is Compassionism as the Research Hub specifies it, with every mechanism in, set against no program. A Source that issues the Basic Units (BU) pays for it. In the cautious main reading, what the Source pays out is new money, except the part that new output backs. Each environment is a different world the same adults live in: Reference (the model’s main settings, with no recessions and no outside inflation), Adverse (recessions, 2% outside inflation and an automation wave) and Stress Test (the Adverse environment with weaker settings (40% take part, a smaller allowance)).","results.read":"Each row of the chart is one measure in one environment. The hollow mark is no program, the filled mark is Compassionism, and the line between them is the change. A mark further left means fewer people below the line. All three measures are shares of adults. The first two are averaged over every year of the run (shares of adult-years); the third is measured in the last year. The table “Run by run” takes each of the {{meta.seeds|int}} runs on its own: the change on the same draws, how often the program does better or worse than no program, and the change in the 10th, middle and 90th run. In Reference, 20 years, the program does better on the cost of living in {{panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.paired.fgt0PY.better|p1}} of the runs and on too little wealth in {{panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.paired.pov.better|p1}}.","results.limits":"It does not show a forecast: it shows what the model’s rules imply. The cautious main reading treats the Source’s payout as new money; the optimistic end (called H1: every dollar backed by new output) is in the table. The adults live in households as US adults do (single adults, single parents, couples with and without children), in one country’s prices and wages (US). In the main reading nobody ages: children stay children, and couples neither form nor part (the aging reading lets children grow up, be born and leave home). More adults end with too little wealth than with no program in Reference and Adverse and Stress Test over 20 years, because prices rise with the program’s new money and savings in the model earn nothing.","release.changed":"What changed for the figures in v5.4. People can now lose their job and find another, as US workers do (flows and spell lengths from the Current Population Survey), with unemployment insurance in both runs. After a permanent job loss, pay on return is lower, by 10% on average. That is a design parameter, because no single source fixes it for every permanent loss. In Adverse and Stress, the automation wave now works through job loss in high-risk occupations, instead of slower pay for everyone. Community housing (PTH) keeps the trust’s books for every home. Acre Equity grows at most at the price rise plus 2% (Duke’s cap, d175), and members who move away take 40% of their Acre Equity in cash (d174). Community businesses (PTF) now cut prices sector by sector instead of a flat 12%: food and utilities at the figures in the Basic Living Economic Index (BLEI) paper, and no cut where the Hub gives none. Members who move away leave. Job loss changes the no-program run as well as the program, so v5.4’s figures cannot be compared with earlier releases’: compare within a release. v5.3’s main row, run on the v5.4 engine with its own no-program run, is shown beside the main result as the reading “v5.3’s main row”. In Reference over 20 years, too little wealth changes by {{panels.20.envs.ref.rows.v53.dPov.0|s1}} points against no program there, and by {{panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.dPov.0|s1}} in the main result.","results.prices":"The price-level column gives the typical run first: the median over the {{meta.seeds|int}} runs, then the 10th to 90th percentile and the mean. The price level compounds, so the mean runs above the typical run, and the gap grows with the horizon. Above 1,000 times today’s prices the figure shows the model’s price rule running away (it has no central bank, no interest rate and no protection for savings): a limit of the model, not a forecast.","results.month":"What a month still buys, in today’s dollars (Compassionism; no program in brackets). At year 20 a month of the median wage buys Reference {{panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.path.wageR.19|usd}} ({{panels.20.envs.ref.base.path.wageR.19|usd}}), Adverse {{panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.path.wageR.19|usd}} ({{panels.20.envs.adv.base.path.wageR.19|usd}}), Stress Test {{panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.path.wageR.19|usd}} ({{panels.20.envs.st.base.path.wageR.19|usd}}), and a month of the BU Reference {{panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.path.buR.19|usd}}, Adverse {{panels.20.envs.adv.rows.release.path.buR.19|usd}}, Stress Test {{panels.20.envs.st.rows.release.path.buR.19|usd}}. At year 40 a month of the median wage buys Reference {{panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.path.wageR.39|usd}} ({{panels.40.envs.ref.base.path.wageR.39|usd}}), Adverse {{panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.path.wageR.39|usd}} ({{panels.40.envs.adv.base.path.wageR.39|usd}}), Stress Test {{panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.path.wageR.39|usd}} ({{panels.40.envs.st.base.path.wageR.39|usd}}), and a month of the BU Reference {{panels.40.envs.ref.rows.release.path.buR.39|usd}}, Adverse {{panels.40.envs.adv.rows.release.path.buR.39|usd}}, Stress Test {{panels.40.envs.st.rows.release.path.buR.39|usd}}.","results.provenance":"Provenance: produced by harness.js at commit <code>fe88599f9d2f4d26651f6e01370454206257beab</code> with Node v22.22.0; SHA-256 of harness.js as run <code>7f28093ffe8619d2914e1fe48f8e4ca0e09b6b109cd2d1b9ee028a8f534006da</code>, of the page’s ported release engine <code>99fb4b577ef1bb095cf24287abdddd2c8f60379e339e3cd1ad90ca16a485dc0b</code>. The checks confirm that the engine hash equals the page’s. Reproduce: <code>node harness.js testbed 500 release ref,adv,st (one process per environment: release ref --json=dev/runs/release-panel-ref.json, and adv, st; then python3 dev/tools/merge_panel.py)</code>, then <code>node harness.js testbed 500 release ref,adv,st --years=40 (one process per environment: release ref --years=40 --json=dev/runs/release-panel-40-ref.json, and adv, st; then python3 dev/tools/merge_panel.py 40)</code>.","targets.lead":"The Research Hub sets two targets for Year 7 of a program: a poverty rate under 2% (from about 12%) and a Gini coefficient of 0.25 to 0.30 (from 0.48). A Gini coefficient measures inequality, from perfect equality to one person owning everything. Both targets are in the <a href=\"https://bettertobest.github.io/research-hub/integrated-implementation-roadmap.html\" rel=\"noopener\">Integrated Implementation Roadmap</a> (Success Metrics by Year 7; Appendix I). The Basic Living Economic Index (BLEI) paper adds 0.25 as its design target for the spread of wealth.","targets.read":"Each mark is the share of adults below a line in one year: Year 7 (the Hub’s date) and the run’s last year. Filled marks are Compassionism; hollow marks are no program. The shaded strip is the Hub’s target of under 2%. The first measure is the one behind the Hub’s starting point. It compares money income before tax with the US official poverty threshold for one person under 65 ({{inputs.povertyLine2025|usd}} in 2025; Census, quoted in Congressional Research Service report IN12737), moved with prices. The BU, like food stamps, are not money income, so they do not count here. The second measure keeps the same threshold but counts resources closer to the Census Supplemental Poverty Measure: income after the contribution, plus the value of the BU and the price cuts.","targets.limits":"The targets are read on the adults. The model’s adults are working-age and all start with a wage, so its no-program rate sits below the national 10.2% of 2025: the same definition, a different population. The Hub does not say which measure its rate is, so the 2% line is also read against each of the model’s own measures, which are stricter. The unhoused figure starts from 0.22% at year 0 by construction, so it sits under 2% whatever the program does. The income Gini is the like-for-like figure for the Roadmap’s 0.48 start. The model’s no-program Gini is already below it. The BLEI paper’s 0.25 is for wealth less a year of extraction costs, which this engine does not model; so the plain wealth Gini, with debts counted as zero, is the nearest figure. Every Gini carries the small-sample correction (×500/499), and a reading within 0.002 of a line is labeled as on it.","fixed.lead":"The main readings move every line with the price level (the wealth line of {{inputs.wealthLine|usd}}, the 30-day BLEI line and the poverty threshold), so a line means the same living standard every year. Held fixed in dollars instead, the lines fall behind prices and the shares read lower.","fixed.read":"For each measure, the filled mark is the share with the line moved with prices (the main reading) and the hollow mark the share with the line fixed in dollars, with Compassionism. The gap is how much of a result depends on keeping the line’s value.","fixed.limits":"A fixed-dollar line is not a better measure: as prices rise it describes a lower and lower standard of living. It is shown so that no one has to take the indexing on trust.","backing.lead":"The decisive unknown is how much of the Source’s payout new output backs. Call that share a. The main row assumes none of the net payout is backed by new output (a = 0). The H1 reading assumes all of it is (a = 1). This sweep tries a at 0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 and 1 on the same {{backing._meta.seeds|int}} paired runs of {{backing._meta.agents|int}} adults over {{backing._meta.years|int}} years, with every other mechanism as in the main row. The two ends are the main row and H1, matching to the last digit.","backing.read":"Each line is an environment. Each point is the change in the share of adults with too little wealth at year {{backing._meta.years|int}} against no program, with its 95% interval. Above zero means worse than no program. Where the line crosses zero is the share of backing the result needs: Reference about {{derived.cross_ref.v|n2}}; Adverse about {{derived.cross_adv.v|n2}}; Stress Test about {{derived.cross_st.v|n2}}. The diamonds are the middle reading (Claude’s reading of the evidence): new output backs the payout up to 8%, 12% or 16% of a year’s earned income, anchored by the Kenya cash-transfer study (Egger, Haushofer, Miguel, Niehaus and Walker, <em>Econometrica</em> 2022); each sits at the share of the payout it actually backs.","backing.limits":"It is a sweep of a design parameter, not a forecast: the Hub does not give the share, and nothing in the model fixes it. Kenya does not set the US number (the transfers were paid once, from outside the area, into villages with idle capacity), so the main row stays at a = 0. In the Adverse and Stress environments the right end bends. The Hub’s rule indexes the BU to prices only in a year when they rise faster than 5%. So when there is no program inflation (a = 1), the BU loses value to the 2% outside inflation. That is a finding about the rule, not a proposal to change it.","readings.lead":"Each reading changes one assumption beside the main row, over the same paired runs. None of them is in the main row. The first group is v5.4’s: v5.3’s main row (no job loss, and community housing (PTH) and community businesses (PTF) as before), no pay cut on return to work, a 20% cut, automation as a lasting pay drag, the earlier Acre Equity rule (3–5% a year), PTF cutting 25% in the sectors the Hub gives no figure for, and a disaster in Year 7 (a scenario, not a part of the model). The second group undoes, one at a time, each choice v5.3 added: households, pooling, the child allowance, the wider list of what BU buy, starting wealth from the survey, and spending that follows income. A reading that changes the population or something outside the design (job loss and its pay rule, the disaster, households, savings, aging, the US-data readings) applies to the no-program run too. Its change is then measured against no program under the same rule.","readings.read":"Each row is a reading; the mark is the change against no program in the chosen measure, with its 95% interval, and the vertical line is the main row. A mark left of the main row means the reading does better than the main row. Rows are grouped: v5.4’s choices; v5.3’s choices; the optimistic end and the middle backing band; savings and the BU; aging; closer to US data; robustness risks (rent capture, review errors); and other ways to pay.","readings.limits":"Savings that keep up with prices: the model has no bank, so who pays that interest is not modeled. Aging: couples are fixed for life (nobody new pairs up or separates), so over the years the population drifts from the US mix; retirees are measured against a working-age basket. Rents: the evidence measured vouchers for a minority of renters, an upper-end reading here. Review errors: audits catching half is a design parameter, not in the Hub. The progressive and land taxes are modeling alternatives, not the Hub’s design; the model has no land, so the land tax falls on savings.","us.lead":"The no-program run is the yardstick for every result, so it is checked against published US figures: poverty (Census Bureau, Poverty in the United States: 2025), income inequality (Census Bureau, Income in the United States: 2025), wealth (Federal Reserve, 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances: families with a head aged 25–66 and wages, by type, in 2025 dollars) and how poverty spells end (Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Stevens 1994). Households start with the survey’s wealth for their type, so the first year matches it by construction; the check is how the yardstick holds up over the years. No setting was changed to bring a later figure closer. This check is v5.3’s no-program run (before job loss joined it); job loss changes the no-program run, so rerunning the check is listed as follow-up work.","us.read":"Each pair compares the model’s no-program run (filled) with the US figure for the closest group (hollow): the share of households in debt by type at Year 7, and the share of people below the official poverty line (Reference). Close marks mean the yardstick matches; far marks are gaps, explained in the table.","us.limits":"Single parents and single adults run into debt far more than in the survey: their living-wage budgets, with childcare for single parents, are far above what the model’s wages pay, and the model’s wages are lower and less spread out than the survey’s. Its poverty spells are short because every adult starts with a wage and the main reading has no one out of work for long, no disability and no changes in a household.","hh.lead":"Children, and everyone in the household, with Compassionism against no program. A household is poor when its pooled income falls short of its own cost of living: the MIT living-wage basket for its adults and children, childcare included. Each child brings a quarter of the adult BU, shared between the household’s adults (Duke’s choice, d167).","hh.read":"Each row is a share of people in a typical year (or at the last year, where it says so). The hollow mark is no program, the filled mark is Compassionism; a mark further left means fewer people below the line. The household rows count everyone in that kind of household, children included. The last two rows are the share of income lost to rent and interest. One is measured from what people actually pay. The other is the earlier engine’s stand-in for the design target, which this release replaces with the measurement.","hh.limits":"In the main reading children stay children and couples neither form nor part; the aging reading lets children grow up, be born and leave home. Partners are paired at random, not by similar pay. Childcare is at MIT’s prices for every child under 13, whether or not a parent stays home. The households are working households: every adult starts with a wage.","attrib.lead":"What each part of the design does: the main row against the main row without that part, on {{attrib.ref._meta.seeds|int}} paired runs over {{attrib.ref._meta.years|int}} years. These runs are v5.3’s (made before job loss, PTH’s books and PTF by sector joined the main row); rerunning them on the v5.4 main row is listed as follow-up work. The top row is the whole program against no program. Parts work together, so the parts need not add up to the whole; the gap is the interaction, in the table.","attrib.read":"Each row is one part; the mark is how much the main row changes the measure because that part is in it, with its 95% interval. Left of zero means the part lowers the share below the line; right of zero, it raises it. A part that pays out more (the BU buying essentials, conversion of BU into dollars) can lower poverty and raise prices at once; the table gives each part’s effect on inflation and cost beside its effect on poverty.","attrib.limits":"Removing a part is a reading of what the design would be without it, not a proposal. Each part is removed alone, so a part whose work another part can take over shows a small effect. The intervals cover the luck of the draws, not the model’s assumptions, which the readings test.","work.lead":"What v5.4 adds, for the environment and horizon chosen. <strong>Work:</strong> each year an adult at work can lose or leave their job (8.5% a year in normal years, 14.2% in recessions; flows from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey). They are out of work for a spell of the measured length, then come back. After a permanent loss (41% of spells), pay is lower by 10% on average. That cut is a design parameter: the readings show no cut and a 20% cut. Unemployment insurance is paid as in the US, in both runs. <strong>Community housing:</strong> each PTH (Public Trust Housing) home has the trust’s books: value, debt, upkeep, tax, the member’s Acre Equity and the community’s equity. The identity “homes minus debt equals members’ equity plus community equity” is checked for every home every year. <strong>Community businesses:</strong> a member’s price cut is built from sectors. Food gets the BLEI paper’s figure (62% off, less while under 40% of adults are members) and utilities 44% off. Transport, health care and childcare get no cut, because the Hub gives no figure. <strong>Risk:</strong> how far savings and days of basic living fall from their peak, how fast income recovers after a shock, and how often people fall back below the cost of living.","work.read":"Each row is a share of adults (or of adult-years) in the chosen environment and horizon. The hollow mark is no program, the filled mark is Compassionism; the community-housing and community-business rows exist only with the program and are in the table. With the program, savings sit closer to the wealth line in real terms because prices rise with its new money, so a pay cut after job loss pushes more people under the line; this is why the program’s wealth result is worse in Reference than in v5.3 (the reading “v5.3’s main row”). The largest fall in days of basic living is larger with the program because people hold far more days: the measure reads the size of a swing, not its harm.","work.limits":"The pay cut after a permanent job loss is a design parameter, and it drives the largest new result (see the readings with no cut and a 20% cut). The model has no one entering the labor force from outside it, so its unemployment ({{panels.20.envs.ref.rows.release.emUrate|p1}} of working-age adult-years in Reference) is below the official 4.2%. The community businesses (PTF) share one capacity rule across sectors, and the Hub gives no figures for transport, health care or childcare. The Hub’s 55% participation floor never comes into play. The released model reads the floor on the share of adults who are PTF members, and that share is capped well below it. A test raised the cap from 20% to 90% under floors of 40%, 55% and 70%: results moved smoothly and slightly, with no step at 55% (Claude’s reading of the design; dev/reports/v5-22-v54-report.md, section 5). Insurance for PTH homes and taxes on unemployment benefits are not modeled."},"stories":[{"id":"results","title":"Results by environment and horizon","chart":"dumbbell","tables":["rel-t20","rel-t40","rel-paired"]},{"id":"hh","title":"Households and children","chart":"hh","tables":["rel-hh"]},{"id":"work","title":"Jobs, homes and shops, and how risky life is","chart":"work","tables":["rel-work"]},{"id":"targets","title":"Against the Hub’s own targets","chart":"targets","tables":["rel-tg"]},{"id":"fixed","title":"Poverty lines fixed in dollars","chart":"fixed","tables":["rel-fx"]},{"id":"backing","title":"The decisive unknown: how much of the payout new output backs","chart":"backing","tables":["bs"]},{"id":"readings","title":"How far the answer moves: the readings beside the main row","chart":"readings","tables":["rel-v54"]},{"id":"attrib","title":"What each part of the design does","chart":"attrib","tables":["rel-attrib"]},{"id":"us","title":"The no-program run against US data","chart":"us","tables":["rel-us","rel-us3","rel-us2"]}],"explore":{"bands":{"20":"v5.4/bands-20.json","40":"v5.4/bands-40.json"},"lives":{"ref-20":"v5.4/lives-ref-20.json","adv-20":"v5.4/lives-adv-20.json","st-20":"v5.4/lives-st-20.json","ref-40":"v5.4/lives-ref-40.json","adv-40":"v5.4/lives-adv-40.json","st-40":"v5.4/lives-st-40.json"},"lifeSeed":1},"status":"earlier"}