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"p": [
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"src": "v.ref.CSN.base.hlRate",
"f": "p1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.ref.CSN.base.fgt0PY",
"f": "p1"
},
" to ",
{
"src": "v.ref.CSN.prog.fgt0PY",
"f": "p1"
}
],
"s": [
"effect ",
{
"src": "v.ref.CSN.d.fgt0PY.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.ref.CSN.vsRef.fgt0PY.0",
"f": "s2"
}
],
"s": [
{
"src": "v.ref.CSN.vsRef.fgt0PY.1",
"f": "s2"
},
" to ",
{
"src": "v.ref.CSN.vsRef.fgt0PY.2",
"f": "s2"
}
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"C, cautious"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.ref.CSNcau.base.hlSB",
"f": "usd"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.ref.CSNcau.base.hlRate",
"f": "p1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.ref.CSNcau.base.fgt0PY",
"f": "p1"
},
" to ",
{
"src": "v.ref.CSNcau.prog.fgt0PY",
"f": "p1"
}
],
"s": [
"effect ",
{
"src": "v.ref.CSNcau.d.fgt0PY.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.ref.CSNcau.vsRef.fgt0PY.0",
"f": "s2"
}
],
"s": [
{
"src": "v.ref.CSNcau.vsRef.fgt0PY.1",
"f": "s2"
},
" to ",
{
"src": "v.ref.CSNcau.vsRef.fgt0PY.2",
"f": "s2"
}
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"C, high cost"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.ref.CSNhigh.base.hlSB",
"f": "usd"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.ref.CSNhigh.base.hlRate",
"f": "p1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.ref.CSNhigh.base.fgt0PY",
"f": "p1"
},
" to ",
{
"src": "v.ref.CSNhigh.prog.fgt0PY",
"f": "p1"
}
],
"s": [
"effect ",
{
"src": "v.ref.CSNhigh.d.fgt0PY.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.ref.CSNhigh.vsRef.fgt0PY.0",
"f": "s2"
}
],
"s": [
{
"src": "v.ref.CSNhigh.vsRef.fgt0PY.1",
"f": "s2"
},
" to ",
{
"src": "v.ref.CSNhigh.vsRef.fgt0PY.2",
"f": "s2"
}
]
}
]
]
},
{
"id": "price-channel",
"title": "Compassionism's effect under today's system with the safety net, by price rule",
"columns": [
"Measure",
"Prices flat",
"Prices as released",
"Price responses 1.5 times"
],
"rows": [
[
{
"p": [
"Basket poverty, Reference"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "flat.ref.ASN.d.fgt0PY.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.ref.ASN.d.fgt0PY.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "thx.ref.ASN.d.fgt0PY.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"Basket poverty, Adverse"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "flat.adv.ASN.d.fgt0PY.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.adv.ASN.d.fgt0PY.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "thx.adv.ASN.d.fgt0PY.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"Basket poverty, Stress"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "flat.st.ASN.d.fgt0PY.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.st.ASN.d.fgt0PY.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "thx.st.ASN.d.fgt0PY.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"Too little wealth, Reference"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "flat.ref.ASN.d.pov.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.ref.ASN.d.pov.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "thx.ref.ASN.d.pov.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"Too little wealth, Adverse"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "flat.adv.ASN.d.pov.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.adv.ASN.d.pov.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "thx.adv.ASN.d.pov.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"Too little wealth, Stress"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "flat.st.ASN.d.pov.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.st.ASN.d.pov.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "thx.st.ASN.d.pov.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"BLEI poverty, Stress"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "flat.st.ASN.d.bOAPy.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.st.ASN.d.bOAPy.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "thx.st.ASN.d.bOAPy.0",
"f": "s1"
}
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"Price level at year 20 with Compassionism, Reference (year 0 = 1)"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "flat.ref.ASN.prog.pLev20",
"f": "lev"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.ref.ASN.prog.pLev20",
"f": "lev"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "thx.ref.ASN.prog.pLev20",
"f": "lev"
}
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"Program cost, Reference"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "flat.ref.ASN.costs.prog.cost",
"f": "usd"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.ref.ASN.costs.prog.cost",
"f": "usd"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "thx.ref.ASN.costs.prog.cost",
"f": "usd"
}
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"B's change to the effect on basket poverty, Reference"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "flat.ref.BSN.vsRef.fgt0PY.0",
"f": "s2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "v.ref.BSN.vsRef.fgt0PY.0",
"f": "s2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "thx.ref.BSN.vsRef.fgt0PY.0",
"f": "s2"
}
]
}
]
]
},
{
"id": "morris",
"title": "Screening (Morris), Stress: the six inputs that move each outcome most, with the size of the move over the input's range",
"columns": [
"Outcome",
"Leading inputs, with their effect over the input's range (points; dollars for cost; points a year for inflation)",
"Same leaders in both seed blocks?"
],
"rows": [
[
{
"p": [
"Basket poverty"
]
},
{
"p": [
"Participation ",
{
"src": "morris.fgt0PY.top.0.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"BU amount ",
{
"src": "morris.fgt0PY.top.1.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"Income effect on earnings ",
{
"src": "morris.fgt0PY.top.2.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"BLEI wage bonus ",
{
"src": "morris.fgt0PY.top.3.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"Conversion tax ",
{
"src": "morris.fgt0PY.top.4.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"Wage elasticity ",
{
"src": "morris.fgt0PY.top.5.muStar",
"f": "n1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
"Yes"
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"Too little wealth"
]
},
{
"p": [
"Share of extra cash spent ",
{
"src": "morris.pov.top.0.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"BU amount ",
{
"src": "morris.pov.top.1.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"Income effect on earnings ",
{
"src": "morris.pov.top.2.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"Participation ",
{
"src": "morris.pov.top.3.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"Pay cut after job loss ",
{
"src": "morris.pov.top.4.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"BLEI wage bonus ",
{
"src": "morris.pov.top.5.muStar",
"f": "n1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
"Yes"
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"BLEI poverty"
]
},
{
"p": [
"Participation ",
{
"src": "morris.bOAPy.top.0.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"BU amount ",
{
"src": "morris.bOAPy.top.1.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"Income effect on earnings ",
{
"src": "morris.bOAPy.top.2.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"Pay cut after job loss ",
{
"src": "morris.bOAPy.top.3.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"PTH uptake ",
{
"src": "morris.bOAPy.top.4.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"BLEI wage bonus ",
{
"src": "morris.bOAPy.top.5.muStar",
"f": "n1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
"Yes"
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"Program cost"
]
},
{
"p": [
"Participation ",
{
"src": "morris.cost.top.0.muStar",
"f": "usd"
},
"; ",
"BU amount ",
{
"src": "morris.cost.top.1.muStar",
"f": "usd"
},
"; ",
"Conversion tax ",
{
"src": "morris.cost.top.2.muStar",
"f": "usd"
},
"; ",
"Top conversion rate ",
{
"src": "morris.cost.top.3.muStar",
"f": "usd"
},
"; ",
"PTF cut outside food and housing ",
{
"src": "morris.cost.top.4.muStar",
"f": "usd"
},
"; ",
"PTH uptake ",
{
"src": "morris.cost.top.5.muStar",
"f": "usd"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
"Yes"
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"Program inflation"
]
},
{
"p": [
"Participation ",
{
"src": "morris.endoAnn.top.0.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"BU amount ",
{
"src": "morris.endoAnn.top.1.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"Income effect on earnings ",
{
"src": "morris.endoAnn.top.2.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"Pay cut after job loss ",
{
"src": "morris.endoAnn.top.3.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"Wage elasticity ",
{
"src": "morris.endoAnn.top.4.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
"; ",
"BLEI wage bonus ",
{
"src": "morris.endoAnn.top.5.muStar",
"f": "n1"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
"Yes"
]
}
]
]
},
{
"id": "sobol",
"title": "Follow-up Sobol, Stress: share of the spread each input explains (total index; centered first-order index beneath)",
"columns": [
"Input",
"Basket poverty",
"Too little wealth",
"BLEI poverty",
"Program cost",
"Program inflation"
],
"rows": [
[
{
"p": [
"Participation"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.fgt0PY.part.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.fgt0PY.part.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.pov.part.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.pov.part.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.bOAPy.part.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.bOAPy.part.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.cost.part.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.cost.part.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.endoAnn.part.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.endoAnn.part.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"BU amount"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.fgt0PY.bu.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.fgt0PY.bu.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.pov.bu.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.pov.bu.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.bOAPy.bu.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.bOAPy.bu.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.cost.bu.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.cost.bu.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.endoAnn.bu.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.endoAnn.bu.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"Income effect on earnings"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.fgt0PY.rho.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.fgt0PY.rho.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.pov.rho.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.pov.rho.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.bOAPy.rho.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.bOAPy.rho.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.cost.rho.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.cost.rho.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.endoAnn.rho.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.endoAnn.rho.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"Share of extra cash spent"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.fgt0PY.spend.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.fgt0PY.spend.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.pov.spend.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.pov.spend.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.bOAPy.spend.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.bOAPy.spend.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.cost.spend.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.cost.spend.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.endoAnn.spend.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.endoAnn.spend.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"Pay cut after job loss"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.fgt0PY.payCut.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.fgt0PY.payCut.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.pov.payCut.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.pov.payCut.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.bOAPy.payCut.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.bOAPy.payCut.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.cost.payCut.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.cost.payCut.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.endoAnn.payCut.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.endoAnn.payCut.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"BLEI wage bonus"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.fgt0PY.bleiBonus.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.fgt0PY.bleiBonus.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.pov.bleiBonus.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.pov.bleiBonus.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.bOAPy.bleiBonus.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.bOAPy.bleiBonus.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.cost.bleiBonus.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.cost.bleiBonus.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.endoAnn.bleiBonus.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.endoAnn.bleiBonus.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"Conversion tax"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.fgt0PY.tax.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.fgt0PY.tax.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.pov.tax.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.pov.tax.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.bOAPy.tax.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.bOAPy.tax.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.cost.tax.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.cost.tax.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "sobol.endoAnn.tax.ST",
"f": "n2"
}
],
"s": [
"first-order ",
{
"src": "sobol.endoAnn.tax.Sc",
"f": "n2"
}
]
}
]
]
},
{
"id": "wwtbt",
"title": "What would have to be true for each headline result",
"columns": [
"The result",
"What would have to be true",
"What the study found when it varied the inputs (Stress)"
],
"rows": [
[
{
"p": [
"Basket poverty falls with Compassionism, in every economy."
]
},
{
"p": [
"Enough adults take part, and the BU amount is as designed: both are choices about the program's size, and they move the answer most. The income effect on earnings (how far people cut paid work when given money) is inside its sourced range and no larger."
]
},
{
"p": [
"Over its range, participation moves it ",
{
"src": "morris.fgt0PY.top.0.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
" points, the BU amount ",
{
"src": "morris.fgt0PY.top.1.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
" and the income effect on earnings ",
{
"src": "morris.fgt0PY.top.2.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
". Share of the spread explained: participation ",
{
"src": "sobol.fgt0PY.part.ST",
"f": "n2"
},
", BU amount ",
{
"src": "sobol.fgt0PY.bu.ST",
"f": "n2"
},
", income effect ",
{
"src": "sobol.fgt0PY.rho.ST",
"f": "n2"
},
"."
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"\"Too little wealth\" rises with Compassionism."
]
},
{
"p": [
"Program spending raises prices the way the model's price rule says, and people spend about the share of extra cash the model assumes. If prices did not respond, the result would reverse."
]
},
{
"p": [
"With no price response it falls instead (",
{
"src": "drv.flatPovFall.ref",
"f": "n1"
},
" points lower in Reference). The share of extra cash spent explains ",
{
"src": "sobol.pov.spend.ST",
"f": "n2"
},
" of the spread, the income effect ",
{
"src": "sobol.pov.rho.ST",
"f": "n2"
},
", participation ",
{
"src": "sobol.pov.part.ST",
"f": "n2"
},
", the pay cut after job loss ",
{
"src": "sobol.pov.payCut.ST",
"f": "n2"
},
"."
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"BLEI poverty (the 30-days-of-basic-living measure) falls."
]
},
{
"p": [
"Take-up is high enough: almost all of the spread in this result is how many adults take part."
]
},
{
"p": [
"Share of the spread explained: participation ",
{
"src": "sobol.bOAPy.part.ST",
"f": "n2"
},
", BU amount ",
{
"src": "sobol.bOAPy.bu.ST",
"f": "n2"
},
". Over its range participation moves it ",
{
"src": "morris.bOAPy.top.0.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
" points."
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"The program costs what the study reports."
]
},
{
"p": [
"Take-up and the BU amount stay in the ranges swept. Cost is mostly their product; the conversion tax and the top conversion rate matter much less."
]
},
{
"p": [
"Over its range participation moves yearly cost by ",
{
"src": "morris.cost.top.0.muStar",
"f": "usd"
},
" and the BU amount by ",
{
"src": "morris.cost.top.1.muStar",
"f": "usd"
},
". Share of the spread explained: participation ",
{
"src": "sobol.cost.part.ST",
"f": "n2"
},
", BU amount ",
{
"src": "sobol.cost.bu.ST",
"f": "n2"
},
"."
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"Program inflation is as reported."
]
},
{
"p": [
"The model's price rule, which links the program's spending to the price level, is right in kind. It is not calibrated to outside evidence on benefit-funded demand."
]
},
{
"p": [
"Participation moves it ",
{
"src": "morris.endoAnn.top.0.muStar",
"f": "n1"
},
" points a year over its range and explains ",
{
"src": "sobol.endoAnn.part.ST",
"f": "n2"
},
" of the spread; the BU amount explains ",
{
"src": "sobol.endoAnn.bu.ST",
"f": "n2"
},
"."
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"Single payer lowers poverty."
]
},
{
"p": [
"The Yale preprint's savings (not peer reviewed) are roughly right, or the financing rule alone does the work."
]
},
{
"p": [
"The study ran the preprint's central case, a cautious case and a high-cost case with no savings; see the single-payer table above. Poverty still falls in the cautious case; in the high-cost case any gain comes from the financing rule."
]
}
]
]
},
{
"id": "unsourced",
"title": "Two constants with no source",
"columns": [
"Constant",
"Value",
"Source",
"Do the released figures use it?"
],
"rows": [
[
{
"p": [
"CCO (Creative Currency Octaves) cost relief: how far CCO members' cost of living is cut at the reference BU, and the ceiling on that cut"
]
},
{
"p": [
{
"src": "unsourced.ccoRelief",
"f": "p0"
},
" of the basket (ceiling ",
{
"src": "unsourced.ccoCap",
"f": "p0"
},
")"
]
},
{
"p": [
"None found. The decision log records the search; the value is a placeholder."
]
},
{
"p": [
"No. Raising it left every released row unchanged when tested. It belongs to the earlier engine."
]
}
],
[
{
"p": [
"Inflation damping by community businesses (PTF, which cut prices) and community housing (PTH): how much of outside inflation they absorb, applied to the overall inflation rate"
]
},
{
"p": [
"PTF ",
{
"src": "unsourced.ptfDamp",
"f": "n1"
},
", PTH ",
{
"src": "unsourced.pthDamp",
"f": "n1"
},
" (times the share of people who joined)"
]
},
{
"p": [
"None found. The decision log records the search; no source gives its size."
]
},
{
"p": [
"Only in one optional row, off by default and labeled \"the two former stand-ins on\"; no main row. Raising both changed that row and no other."
]
}
]
]
}
],
"text": {
"intro": "This page reports the 500-seed study. It runs the same 500 simulated populations (500 adults each, followed for 20 years) with and without Compassionism under three health systems and three economies, and then asks which inputs the answer depends on. Every comparison is paired: the same people and the same luck in both runs. Figures are the study's, copied from its results report.",
"basket": "Compassionism lowers basket poverty in every combination of health system and economy. In Reference under today's health system it falls by {{drv.fall.ref|n1}} points (Adverse {{drv.fall.adv|n1}}, Stress {{drv.fall.st|n1}}). Single payer lowers poverty before Compassionism starts, so Compassionism's own drop is {{drv.ptsLess.ref|n1}} points smaller under it in Reference, and the level reached with both is the lowest of the three settings.",
"cap.basket": "Basket poverty counts the adult-years spent below the cost of living. Results for B (single payer) and C (single payer with a private layer) depend on single-payer savings taken from the Yale preprint (Galvani, Pandey, Wells and Ye, medRxiv 2026), which is not peer reviewed; their range is in the table on single payer. \"With Compassionism\" is the v5.4 release row. Today's safety net is on in both runs of rows A, B and C. Intervals are 95% intervals.",
"cap.other": "Poverty depth (FGT2) weighs each person's shortfall by its square, so the deepest poverty counts most. \"Too little wealth\" rises with Compassionism in every combination of health system and economy, as in the v5.4 release: people in the program hold less cash once their basket is covered. The price-channel table shows this rise comes from the model's price response, not from health financing. In Stress, BLEI poverty (the days-of-basic-living measure) also rises slightly. This study covers 20 years only. In the compare page's 40-year runs (a different set of runs, without the health systems) the gap in \"too little wealth\" between Compassionism and no program narrows between year 20 and year 40, so part of this rise may be the early stage of an effect that matures with time. A 40-year repeat of this study would test that; until then it is a reading, not a result.",
"cap.costs": "The safety net's outlays are today's programs, paid in both runs; they are not program cost. The model does not reconcile tax revenue with these outlays: it reports them, it does not show that they are financed. Under A the household health bill is premiums and out-of-pocket costs. Under B and C it is the health tax less the employer's former premium share. Government's share of the plan is held at its level in the matching run (same seed) without the program.",
"single": "The single-payer savings are inputs from the Yale preprint, not results of this model. The study ran the preprint's central case and two others. In the cautious case, savings are cut; in the high-cost case providers are paid near commercial rates, so the savings vanish and only the added care remains. Single payer still lowers poverty with the cautious savings. In the high-cost case the plan costs more per person than today's system, so any gain there comes from the financing rule, not from savings.",
"cap.single": "Reference environment, today's safety net on. Adverse and Stress are in the study's data files. Cost cases are labeled in the first column.",
"price": "The model raises essentials' prices when more of them are bought, and the program's spending also raises the general price level. With prices as released, \"too little wealth\" rises with Compassionism (Reference: {{v.ref.ASN.d.pov.0|s1}} points). With no price response at all it falls instead ({{drv.flatPovFall.ref|n1}} points lower in Reference), and falls in every environment. So the rise comes through the price response: program inflation erodes cash savings, so more adults end with too little real wealth even though their basket is covered. Making the responses stronger changes little, so what matters is whether the program's inflation happens, not its strength. How strongly prices respond to benefit-funded demand is not settled.",
"cap.price": "The flat column switches off every price response, including the program's own inflation. It shows what prices do in the model; it is not a scenario anyone proposes. \"As released\" carries the program inflation the v5.4 release reports. In Adverse and Stress the flat runs keep the environments' background inflation.",
"sens": "Two methods ask which inputs the answer depends on. Screening (the Morris method, 1991) ranks how far each input moves an outcome over its range, on {{meta.morrisPaths|int}} random paths of {{meta.morrisSeeds|int}} paired runs (seeds) each. The follow-up Sobol run (the Sobol method, Saltelli et al. 2010) splits the spread of each outcome among the inputs, with {{meta.sobolBase|int}} base points and {{meta.sobolSeeds|int}} paired runs (seeds) per point, in Stress. Participation and the amount of BU (Basic Units, the community currency) paid explain most of the spread in poverty, BLEI poverty (the share of adult-years below 30 days of basic living, by the Basic Living Economic Index), cost and inflation. These are design choices about the program's size, not uncertain facts about the world. For basket poverty, the income effect on earnings is the one uncertain behavioral constant that matters. \"Too little wealth\" depends most on the share of extra cash people spend.",
"cap.morris": "A noise check was set before the run: an input's effect counts as measured only if the two seed blocks agree to within a quarter of it. The leaders hardly differ between environments (Reference and Adverse are in the data files).",
"cap.sobol": "The total index counts an input alone and together with others; the first-order index counts it alone. Where the totals add to more than the first-order indices the inputs act together. The first Sobol run was too noisy for its first-order figures (several fell outside their range), so only this follow-up's are shown. Inputs with a total index of 0.01 or less on every outcome are left out: wage elasticity, uptake of community housing (PTH), top conversion rate and the community-business (PTF) cut outside food and housing.",
"chart": "Each bar is the share of the spread in one outcome that an input explains, alone and together with the others (the Sobol total index, Stress). A longer bar means the answer depends more on that input. The line on each bar is its 95% interval. Pick an outcome to redraw the chart; every number is in the table below it.",
"true": "Claude's reading of the results, not yet checked by an outside reader; it is a named item for the outside audits. A result holds only if some things are true. For each headline result this panel says what would have to be true, and what the study found when those inputs were varied. It does not say they are true. It says where an economist should look first. Two constants have no source at all; they are named after the table.",
"cap.true": "The two constants with no source do not enter the released figures: the study could not vary them, because they are not in the model that produced those figures. They are listed so a reviewer can check the claim, and so that anyone who wants them to count knows a source is needed first. The check that raised each constant and compared every released row is dev/tools/unsourced_check.py, with its result in dev/runs/unsourced-constants-check.txt.",
"limits": "All single-payer results rest on the Yale preprint's savings. The model does not reconcile tax revenue with today's safety-net outlays or with government's share of the plan. The price response drives the \"too little wealth\" result and is not calibrated to outside evidence. The cost-of-living line is the unweighted state average. The work rules of SNAP (food stamps) and a separate Child Tax Credit take-up are not modeled. The community businesses' (PTF) health-sector cut under single payer is an upper reading. The model has not yet been reviewed by an independent economist.",
"history": "A separate check, run on the same model: it was put through a scripted 2008 to 2012 recession and through 2020 and 2021, and compared with what happened. The seven comparisons below, and what would count as a match, were fixed before the model was run, and no constant was adjusted to fit the past. The check reads changes, not levels. The model's adults are built from 2022 data, so it asks how a population like today's would respond to a shock like 2008 or 2020, not whether it reproduces those years. The model's figure is the rise in basket poverty (adults below the cost of living) with today's safety net, the shock run minus the same run with no recession, over {{hist.seeds|int}} paired seeds; the data's is the change from the year before the shock. In short: the direction is right (poverty rises in both shocks, as in the data), the size is too big (a rise of {{hist.c.c2.model|s2}} points at the model's peak against {{hist.c.c2.data|s1}} in the official rate) and the peak comes too late. Verdicts: matches {{hist.count.matches|int}}; same direction, different size {{hist.count.diff|int}}; does not match {{hist.count.no|int}}; reported with no verdict {{hist.count.rep|int}}.",
"cap.history": "The clearest miss is the safety net. In the data the safety net absorbed about {{hist.c.c5.data|p0}} of the recession's rise in poverty (a rise of {{hist.c.c5.dataRises.0|s2}} points before taxes and transfers, {{hist.c.c5.dataRises.1|s2}} after). In the model it absorbs about {{hist.c.c5.model|p1}} (a rise of {{hist.c.c5.modelRises.0|s2}} points without the safety net, {{hist.c.c5.modelRises.1|s2}} with it). The file's label is \"same direction, different size\", because the model's share is just above zero and the rule fixed in advance gives that label to any positive share; the gap is far outside the band of {{hist.band|n0}} points, so in substance it is a miss. Three reasons, all in the model's design: (a) SNAP and the tax credits are paid on last year's income, so they arrive a year late; (b) the model's cost-of-living line is high, and benefits of a few thousand dollars seldom lift someone over it (they shrink the gap instead); (c) the data's \"before transfers\" removes far more than the model's three programs (SNAP, the Earned Income Tax Credit and the refundable Child Tax Credit): it also removes unemployment insurance, Social Security, housing aid and the tax system, while in the model unemployment insurance is in both runs and the others do not respond to the shock. So in a downturn the model's baseline safety net is weaker than the real one, and a comparison of Compassionism against today's safety net in a recession should be read with that in mind. The model has no stimulus payments or weekly unemployment top-up, which is why the 2020 supplemental rate (reported, no verdict) fell in the data and rose in the model. The data are outside figures, not verified against Census, BLS or the Federal Reserve by this repository. Plain-words report: dev/reports/v5-34-history-check.md; data: dev/runs/history/history-check.json.",
"asof": "Study run on a rented server on {{meta.seeds|int}} paired seeds; the follow-up Sobol ran in Stress only."
},
"sections": [
{
"id": "basket",
"title": "Basket poverty under three health systems",
"lead": "basket",
"tables": [
"basket-poverty"
],
"note": "cap.basket"
},
{
"id": "other",
"title": "Other measures",
"lead": null,
"tables": [
"other-measures"
],
"note": "cap.other"
},
{
"id": "costs",
"title": "Government's costs, in a separate table",
"lead": null,
"tables": [
"costs"
],
"note": "cap.costs"
},
{
"id": "single",
"title": "Single payer depends on the Yale preprint",
"lead": "single",
"tables": [
"single-payer-range"
],
"note": "cap.single"
},
{
"id": "prices",
"title": "The price channel",
"lead": "price",
"tables": [
"price-channel"
],
"note": "cap.price"
},
{
"id": "depends",
"title": "What the results depend on",
"lead": "sens",
"chart": "chart",
"tables": [
"morris",
"sobol"
],
"note": "cap.sobol"
},
{
"id": "true",
"title": "What would have to be true (Claude's reading)",
"lead": "true",
"tables": [
"wwtbt",
"unsourced"
],
"note": "cap.true"
},
{
"id": "limits",
"title": "Limits and what is still open",
"lead": "limits",
"tables": [],
"note": null
}
]
}